Bohemians 1905 2-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 6 as Bohemians 1905 welcome Hradec Králové to Stadion Ďolíček. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bohemians 1905 — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadion Ďolíček — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Hradec Králové have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hradec Králové — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, Hradec Králové 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2023, ended 2–0 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Hradec Králové trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 54% versus Hradec Králové 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 54% | Hradec Králové 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.44 xG and Hradec Králové 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.916 / defence 1.067 | Hradec Králové attack 0.845 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.165. Data: 35 Bohemians 1905 games / 35 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 46% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 28%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Hradec Králové 3.57. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hradec Králové (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 40% | Hradec Králové 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 46% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.44 / Hradec Králové 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.916 / def 1.067 | Hradec Králové attack 0.845 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Hradec Králové xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Bohemians 1905 2 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 46% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové?
Record (1 meetings): Bohemians 1905 1W | Draws 0 | Hradec Králové 0W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
46%
2.18
26%
3.78
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.49
1.05
Hradec Králové xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
7%
15.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.05 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 16W 7D 16L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hradec Králové's form line: 15W 7D 17L from 39 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians 1905 on 1.41 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.21 PPG from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 7W 5D 7L from 19 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.21 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
Hradec Králové
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 16W 7D 16L in their last 39 games (1.41 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 15W 7D 17L in their last 39 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Hradec Králové away?
Hradec Králové's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.21 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2024, when Hradec Králové won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
4
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Hradec Králové have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Bohemians 1905 0-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 58%, Hradec Králové 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Bohemians 1905) and 53% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Hradec Králové?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Bohemians 1905's games and 53% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 53% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians 1905 edge out Hradec Králové 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Hradec Králové 2-1 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.44 xG and Hradec Králové 1.05 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.92 / defence 1.07 against Hradec Králové attack 0.84 / defence 0.96, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 46% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 28%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 54%, Hradec Králové 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.41 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.