Mlada Boleslav 1-3 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav host Plzen at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 6 December 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mlada Boleslav stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav at Lokotrans Aréna this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mlada Boleslav 1.80 PPG, Plzen 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mlada Boleslav register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Plzen in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Mlada Boleslav have won 0, Plzen 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Mlada Boleslav in-play and half-time data (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Plzen in-play and half-time data (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 57% versus Plzen 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 57% | Plzen 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.83 xG and Plzen 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.266 / defence 0.869 | Plzen attack 1.334 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.158. Mlada Boleslav carry an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Plzen have an above-average attack strength of 1.334 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Mlada Boleslav games / 45 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 49% | Draw 23% | Plzen 28%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Plzen 3.57. Mlada Boleslav hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 60% | Plzen 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Dec 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 49% | Draw 23% | Plzen 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.83 / Plzen 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.266 / def 0.869 | Plzen attack 1.334 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Plzen xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 6 December 2023 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Mlada Boleslav 1 - 3 Plzen.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 49% chance of winning, Plzen a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Plzen?
Record (3 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 0W | Draws 1 | Plzen 2W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Plzen in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Plzen (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.27) and Plzen's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
49%
2.04
23%
4.38
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
3.17
1.34
Plzen xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
5%
22.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.3 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.34 for Plzen, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Mlada Boleslav have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 17W 13D 17L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen's form line: 24W 8D 15L from 47 games, 1.70 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mlada Boleslav on 1.36 PPG, Plzen on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mlada Boleslav have posted 1.64 PPG from 22 outings (9W 9D 4L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 10W 4D 8L from 22 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.87 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen in 62%.
Last 47 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Plzen in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 17W 13D 17L in their last 47 games (1.36 PPG), while Plzen have gone 24W 8D 15L in their last 47 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Plzen away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.64 PPG; Plzen away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Plzen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2025, when Plzen won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 0, Plzen have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Plzen 2-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 59%, Plzen 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mlada Boleslav) and 59% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Plzen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 59% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 59% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Plzen tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Plzen in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Mlada Boleslav.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Mlada Boleslav 1-3 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.83 xG and Plzen 1.34 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Plzen outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.27 / defence 0.87 against Plzen attack 1.33 / defence 0.98, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 49% | Draw 23% | Plzen 28%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 57%, Plzen 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.36 PPG, Plzen 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plzen win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.