Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-0 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gimcheon Sangmu FC face Gangwon FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gimcheon Stadium plays host to Gimcheon Sangmu FC versus Gangwon FC in K League 1 (matchday 6). Kick-off: Sunday 30 March 2025 at 09:30 UK time.
Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Gangwon FC have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 1.40 for Gangwon FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Gangwon FC edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2024, ended Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0–1 Gangwon FC — a Gangwon FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Gimcheon Sangmu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Gangwon FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42% versus Gangwon FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47% | Gangwon FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.01 xG and Gangwon FC 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.932 / defence 0.829 | Gangwon FC attack 0.967 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.124 / away 1.123. Data: built from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 38 games and Gangwon FC's last 38.
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 37% | Draw 32% | Gangwon FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.69 | Draw 3.16 | Gangwon FC 3.21. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gimcheon Sangmu FC are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Gangwon FC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 6 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 March 2025 at 09:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 37% | Draw 32% | Gangwon FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.01 / Gangwon FC 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.932 / def 0.829 | Gangwon FC attack 0.967 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.124 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Gangwon FC xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC FAQs
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 09:30 UK time on Sunday 30 March 2025 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1 - 0 Gangwon FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 6) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 37% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack rating (0.93) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gangwon FC's attack (0.97x) against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 38 games and Gangwon FC's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
37%
2.69
32%
3.16
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
1.92
0.90
Gangwon FC xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
11%
8.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.5 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 0.90 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 18W 9D 11L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Gangwon FC's form line: 19W 7D 12L from 38 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 1.68 for Gangwon FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 1.95 PPG from their last 19 home games (11W 4D 4L).
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 7W 2D 10L from their last 19 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gangwon FC's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gimcheon Sangmu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.63 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gangwon FC in 61%.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (Home) vs Gangwon FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC Form FAQs
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 18W 9D 11L in their last 38 games (1.66 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 19W 7D 12L in their last 38 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.95 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Gangwon FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Gangwon FC in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won Gangwon FC 0-4 Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 11 May 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gangwon FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
2
Draws
5
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 3, Gangwon FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-2 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42%, Gangwon FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 58% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Gangwon FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 58% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 58% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 63% of Gangwon FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gimcheon Sangmu FC edge out Gangwon FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Gangwon FC 1-0 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.01 xG and Gangwon FC 0.90 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gangwon FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.83 against Gangwon FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.97, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 37% | Draw 32% | Gangwon FC 31%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%, Gangwon FC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.66 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gimcheon Sangmu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.