Gwangju FC 1-1 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gwangju FC at 39%, yet in-form Jeonbuk Motors provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gwangju FC host Jeonbuk Motors at Gwangju Football Stadium in K League 1, Relegation Round - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 05:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gwangju FC — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Gwangju Football Stadium, Gwangju FC have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Gwangju FC are significantly better at Gwangju Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeonbuk Motors stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Jeonbuk Motors's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Jeonbuk Motors are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Gwangju FC have won 1, Jeonbuk Motors 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Gwangju FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Gwangju FC in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 51% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Jeonbuk Motors in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 41% versus Jeonbuk Motors 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gwangju FC 36% | Jeonbuk Motors 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.53 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 0.937 / defence 1.011 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.190 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.233. Data: 66 Gwangju FC games / 66 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 39% | Draw 24% | Jeonbuk Motors 37%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gwangju FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jeonbuk Motors (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. This conflicts with form data: Gwangju FC 40% | Jeonbuk Motors 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 39% | Draw 24% | Jeonbuk Motors 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Gwangju FC 1.53 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 0.937 / def 1.011 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.190 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Jeonbuk Motors xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Gwangju FC 1 - 1 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 39% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Gwangju FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Record (4 meetings): Gwangju FC 1W | Draws 0 | Jeonbuk Motors 3W.
What form are Gwangju FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Gwangju FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gwangju FC's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Jeonbuk Motors's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Gwangju FC's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
39%
2.57
24%
4.13
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
3.01
1.48
Jeonbuk Motors xG
2.57
39%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
9%
11.34
8%
12.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 1.48 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gwangju FC come into this having played 75 games, going 30W 15D 30L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-D.
On the other side, Jeonbuk Motors sit at 1.31 PPG from 75 outings (26W 20D 29L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gwangju FC on 1.40 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gwangju FC's home form reads 18W 6D 13L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeonbuk Motors have taken 1.03 points per game from 37 outings (10W 8D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gwangju FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gwangju FC are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.24 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 75 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gwangju FC and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 30W 15D 30L in their last 75 games (1.40 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 26W 20D 29L in their last 75 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Gwangju FC's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.62 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Gwangju FC or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gwangju FC's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Gwangju FC
3
Draws
6
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 1, Jeonbuk Motors have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 4-0 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Gwangju FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches.
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gwangju FC 35%, Jeonbuk Motors 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Gwangju FC) and 43% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Gwangju FC have failed to score in 38% of games; Jeonbuk Motors in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gwangju FC play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Gwangju FC's recent matches and 35% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 43% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gwangju FC and Jeonbuk Motors tend to score early?
Gwangju FC have had a goal before half-time in 51% of their recent matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gwangju FC and Jeonbuk Motors share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC and Jeonbuk Motors finished level at 1-1 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Relegation Round - 5, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.53 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.48 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.01 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.19 / defence 1.12, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 39% | Draw 24% | Jeonbuk Motors 37%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 36%, Jeonbuk Motors 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.40 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.