Seoul E-Land FC 1-2 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Seoul E-Land FC vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Seoul E-Land FC host Jeonbuk Motors at Mokdong Stadium in K League 1, Relegation Round. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024 at 07:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeonbuk Motors stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seoul E-Land FC 1.38 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seoul E-Land FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.184 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.233. Data: 0 Seoul E-Land FC games / 66 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seoul E-Land FC 32% | Draw 24% | Jeonbuk Motors 45%. Fair-value odds: Seoul E-Land FC 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.22. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeonbuk Motors at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seoul E-Land FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round | Venue: Mokdong Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seoul E-Land FC 32% | Draw 24% | Jeonbuk Motors 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Seoul E-Land FC 1.38 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Seoul E-Land FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.184 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Seoul E-Land FC xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Jeonbuk Motors xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seoul E-Land FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Seoul E-Land FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 07:00 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Mokdong Stadium.
What was the final score in Seoul E-Land FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Seoul E-Land FC 1 - 2 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Seoul E-Land FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Mokdong Stadium.
What competition is Seoul E-Land FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Seoul E-Land FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Relegation Round fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seoul E-Land FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Seoul E-Land FC a 32% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seoul E-Land FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Seoul E-Land FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Seoul E-Land FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seoul E-Land FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Seoul E-Land FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Jeonbuk Motors away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | CS 3.
What do the betting odds say about Seoul E-Land FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.