Jeju United FC 0-0 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeju United FC at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gwangju FC make the trip to Jeju World Cup Stadium to face Jeju United FC in K League 1 (Relegation Round - 4). The match kicks off on Sunday 10 November 2024 at 07:30 UK time.
Form
Jeju United FC (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Jeju United FC have posted 7W 0D 3L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Jeju United FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Gwangju FC's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Gwangju FC away from home: 3W 0D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Jeju United FC's favour (1.60 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Jeju United FC, 0 for Gwangju FC and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2024, ended Jeju United FC 2–0 Gwangju FC — a Jeju United FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Jeju United FC — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Gwangju FC — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 49% versus Gwangju FC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 46% | Gwangju FC 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.28 xG and Gwangju FC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.898 / defence 1.057 | Gwangju FC attack 0.840 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.233. Data: built from Jeju United FC's last 66 games and Gwangju FC's last 66.
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 41% | Draw 28% | Gwangju FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.46 | Draw 3.62 | Gwangju FC 3.16. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeju United FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jeju United FC's last 10 home games and Gwangju FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jeju United FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Gwangju FC 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 41% | Draw 28% | Gwangju FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Jeju United FC 1.28 / Gwangju FC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.898 / def 1.057 | Gwangju FC attack 0.840 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Gwangju FC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC FAQs
What time does Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC?
Jeju United FC 0 - 0 Gwangju FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC is a K League 1 fixture (Relegation Round - 4) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 41% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jeju United FC's attack rating (0.90) and Gwangju FC's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gwangju FC's attack (0.84x) against Jeju United FC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from Jeju United FC's last 66 games and Gwangju FC's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.62
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.38
1.09
Gwangju FC xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
9%
11.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.09 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jeju United FC come into this having played 74 games, going 25W 14D 35L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Gwangju FC sit at 1.41 PPG from 74 outings (30W 14D 30L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Jeju United FC against 1.41 for Gwangju FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Jeju United FC's home form reads 16W 6D 14L across their last 36 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Gwangju FC have taken 1.22 points per game from their last 36 away games (12W 8D 16L).
Attack vs Defence
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.19 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Gwangju FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC (Home) vs Gwangju FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Gwangju FC
Current Season
❓ Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC Form FAQs
What form are Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 25W 14D 35L in their last 74 games (1.20 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 30W 14D 30L in their last 74 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Gwangju FC away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Jeju United FC or Gwangju FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Gwangju FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC, the earliest from September 2024. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeju United FC have gone 0W 3D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gwangju FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jeju United FC
3
Draws
4
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jeju United FC have won 3, Gwangju FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Jeju United FC 1-1 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 47%, Gwangju FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Jeju United FC) and 33% (Gwangju FC).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Gwangju FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Jeju United FC's recent matches and 50% of Gwangju FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 33% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Jeju United FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Relegation Round - 4, as Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC drew 0-0 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.28 xG and Gwangju FC 1.09 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jeju United FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Gwangju FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.06 against Gwangju FC attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 41% | Draw 28% | Gwangju FC 32%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 46%, Gwangju FC 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.20 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.