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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability β€” Saturday 17 February 2024

Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer β€” 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

20 fixtures cleared the bar on Saturday 17 February 2024. Spezia vs Cittadella sits top on 76% in the Serie B. The shortlist runs from 76% down to 60%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.

Championship supplies three of the top 10, so the day's profile is concentrated rather than spread evenly.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, ten landed the under 2.5 goals market — 50%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only β€” not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

#1 Serie B Β· Italy 76%
Spezia
4 : 2 FT
Cittadella
Win 30%
Draw 37%
Win 33%
Under 2.5 76% BTTS No 66%
#2 Serie B Β· Italy 70%
Lecco
1 : 3 FT
Cosenza
Win 29%
Draw 34%
βœ“ Win 36%
Under 2.5 70% BTTS No 60%
#3 Championship Β· England 69%
Birmingham
2 : 1 FT
Sunderland
βœ“ Win 37%
Draw 31%
Win 32%
Under 2.5 69% BTTS No 61%
#4 La Liga Β· Spain 68%
Osasuna
2 : 0 FT
Cadiz
βœ“ Win 42%
Draw 34%
Win 24%
✓ Under 2.5 68% ✓ BTTS No 59%
#5 Primeira Liga Β· Portugal 68%
Portimonense
1 : 1 FT
Vitória SC
Win 31%
Draw 31%
Win 38%
✓ Under 2.5 68% BTTS No 60%
#6 Ligue 2 Β· France 68%
Angers
0 : 3 FT
Saint Etienne
Win 51%
Draw 29%
Win 20%
Under 2.5 68% ✓ BTTS No 63%
#7 Süper Lig Β· Turkey 67%
Antalyaspor
2 : 2 FT
İstanbulspor
Win 46%
Draw 35%
Win 19%
Under 2.5 67% BTTS No 59%
#8 Championship Β· England 65%
Bristol City
0 : 1 FT
QPR
Win 47%
Draw 29%
Win 24%
✓ Under 2.5 65% ✓ BTTS No 60%
#9 Ligue 2 Β· France 65%
Dunkerque
2 : 1 FT
Valenciennes
Win 33%
Draw 30%
Win 37%
Under 2.5 65% BTTS No 58%
#10 Championship Β· England 65%
Millwall
0 : 2 FT
Sheffield Wednesday
Win 51%
Draw 28%
Win 21%
✓ Under 2.5 65% ✓ BTTS No 61%
#11 Primeira Liga Β· Portugal 65%
FC Porto
2 : 0 FT
Estrela
βœ“ Win 63%
Draw 25%
Win 12%
✓ Under 2.5 65% ✓ BTTS No 68% ✓ FC Porto Clean Sheet 59%
#12 Ligue 2 Β· France 64%
Concarneau
2 : 2 FT
Paris FC
Win 26%
Draw 29%
Win 45%
Under 2.5 64% BTTS No 58%
#13 Ekstraklasa Β· Poland 64%
Raków Częstochowa
3 : 1 FT
Piast Gliwice
βœ“ Win 47%
Draw 30%
Win 23%
Under 2.5 64% BTTS No 58%
#14 Serie A Β· Italy 62%
Napoli
1 : 1 FT
Genoa
Win 43%
Draw 31%
Win 25%
✓ Under 2.5 62% BTTS No 55%
#15 League One Β· England 62%
Lincoln
1 : 0 FT
Exeter City
βœ“ Win 48%
Draw 28%
Win 25%
✓ Under 2.5 62% ✓ BTTS No 57%
#16 Serie A Β· Italy 61%
Hellas Verona
2 : 2 FT
Juventus
Win 20%
Draw 30%
Win 50%
Under 2.5 61% BTTS No 56%
#17 Czech Liga Β· Czech-Republic 61%
Bohemians 1905
0 : 2 FT
Plzen
Win 24%
Draw 30%
βœ“ Win 47%
✓ Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 55%
#18 Super League 1 Β· Greece 61%
Atromitos
0 : 2 FT
Aris Thessalonikis
Win 26%
Draw 31%
βœ“ Win 43%
✓ Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 54%
#19 Challenger Pro League Β· Belgium 61%
Lommel United
0 : 1 FT
Oostende
Win 46%
Draw 28%
Win 26%
✓ Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 55%
#20 La Liga Β· Spain 60%
Atletico Madrid
5 : 0 FT
Las Palmas
βœ“ Win 51%
Draw 30%
Win 19%
Under 2.5 60% ✓ BTTS No 56%

Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Under 2.5 Goals β€” common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Saturday 17 February 2024?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Spezia vs Cittadella at 76% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.