Osasuna 2-0 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Osasuna (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Osasuna face Cadiz.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Cadiz travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 February 2024, 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Osasuna have posted 4W 3D 3L at Estadio El Sadar — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cadiz stand at 0W 6D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Osasuna are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Osasuna have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while Cadiz have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Osasuna a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Osasuna in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Cadiz in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 45% versus Cadiz 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 39% | Cadiz 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.17 xG and Cadiz 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.879 / defence 1.141 | Cadiz attack 0.638 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.146. Data: 62 Osasuna games / 62 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 42% | Draw 34% | Cadiz 24%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Cadiz 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 40% | Cadiz 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 42% | Draw 34% | Cadiz 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Osasuna 1.17 / Cadiz 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.879 / def 1.141 | Cadiz attack 0.638 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Cadiz xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Cadiz kick off?
Osasuna vs Cadiz kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Cadiz?
Osasuna 2 - 0 Cadiz.
Where is Osasuna vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Cadiz part of?
Osasuna vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 42% chance of winning, Cadiz a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Osasuna and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Cadiz?
Record (5 meetings): Osasuna 4W | Draws 1 | Cadiz 0W.
What form are Osasuna and Cadiz in?
Osasuna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Cadiz (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (0.88) and Cadiz's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cadiz's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
42%
2.41
34%
2.93
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.00
0.83
Cadiz xG
2.41
42%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
8%
13.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 11.3 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.83 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Osasuna come into this having played 62 games, going 23W 13D 26L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cadiz sit at 0.95 PPG from 62 outings (12W 23D 27L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.32 PPG, Cadiz on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Osasuna's home form reads 15W 4D 12L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Cadiz have taken 0.65 points per game from 31 outings (3W 11D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.73 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 62 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 23W 13D 26L in their last 62 games (1.32 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 12W 23D 27L in their last 62 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Cadiz away?
Osasuna's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.58 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osasuna and Cadiz runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Osasuna's record when hosting Cadiz specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Osasuna
1
Draws
0
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 5, Cadiz have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Osasuna 2-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Cadiz?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 42%, Cadiz 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Osasuna and 23% for Cadiz.
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 32% of games; Cadiz in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Osasuna's recent matches and 39% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Osasuna's recent games and 23% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Cadiz tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cadiz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Cadiz 2-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.17 xG and Cadiz 0.83 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Osasuna beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cadiz landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.88 / defence 1.14 against Cadiz attack 0.64 / defence 0.97, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 42% | Draw 34% | Cadiz 24%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 39%, Cadiz 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Cadiz's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.32 PPG, Cadiz 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.