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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Saturday 27 May 2023

Wed 24 Thu 25 Fri 26 Sat 27 Sun 28 Mon 29 Tue 30

Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

20 fixtures cleared the bar on Saturday 27 May 2023. Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań sits top on 74% in the Ekstraklasa. The shortlist runs from 74% down to 58%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.

The shortlist spans eight different competitions, a broad spread rather than one division dominating.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, nine landed the under 2.5 goals market — 45%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ekstraklasa · Poland 74%

✓ Under 2.5 74% ✓ BTTS No 66%

Ekstraklasa · Poland 70%

✓ Under 2.5 70% ✓ BTTS No 67% Piast Gliwice Clean Sheet 57%

Primeira Liga · Portugal 68%

✓ Under 2.5 68% ✓ BTTS No 65%

Primeira Liga · Portugal 68%

✓ Under 2.5 68% ✓ BTTS No 60%

Championship · England 65%

✓ Under 2.5 65% BTTS No 57%

Serie A · Italy 63%

Under 2.5 63% ✓ BTTS No 59%

Canadian Premier League · Canada 63%

✓ Under 2.5 63% ✓ BTTS No 58%

Ligue 1 · France 62%

✓ Under 2.5 62% BTTS No 54%

Superettan · Sweden 62%

Under 2.5 62% BTTS No 57%

#10

Premier League · Russia 61%

Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 54%

#11

Serie A · Italy 61%

Under 2.5 61% BTTS No 56%

#12

Ligue 1 · France 60%

#13

Pro League · Saudi-Arabia 60%

Under 2.5 60% ✓ BTTS No 55%

#14

Allsvenskan · Sweden 60%

Under 2.5 60% BTTS No 55%

#15

Bundesliga · Austria 60%

✓ Under 2.5 60% BTTS No 54%

#16

Pro League · Saudi-Arabia 60%

✓ Under 2.5 60% BTTS No 59%

#17

Ekstraklasa · Poland 60%

Under 2.5 60% ✓ BTTS No 58%

#18

K League 1 · South-Korea 59%

#19

Pro League · Saudi-Arabia 59%

#20

Serie B · Italy 58%

Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No Over 2.5 Goals

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Under 2.5 Goals — common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Saturday 27 May 2023?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań at 74% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.