Piast Gliwice 0-1 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lechia Gdansk make the trip to Stadion Miejski to face Piast Gliwice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 May 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Piast Gliwice have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Piast Gliwice at Stadion Miejski this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Miejski this season.
Lechia Gdansk (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Lechia Gdansk away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Piast Gliwice's favour (2.40 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Piast Gliwice 2W, Lechia Gdansk 1W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 3–1 with Piast Gliwice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Piast Gliwice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Lechia Gdansk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 45% versus Lechia Gdansk 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 31% | Lechia Gdansk 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.33 xG and Lechia Gdansk 0.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.832 / defence 0.809 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.663 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.057. Data: 67 Piast Gliwice games / 67 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 55% | Draw 30% | Lechia Gdansk 15%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 1.82 | Draw 3.33 | Lechia Gdansk 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Piast Gliwice (55%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Lechia Gdansk's lower xG of 0.57 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Piast Gliwice as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 50% | Lechia Gdansk 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 55% | Draw 30% | Lechia Gdansk 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 33% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.33 / Lechia Gdansk 0.57 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.832 / def 0.809 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.663 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
0.57
Lechia Gdansk xG
33%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk?
Piast Gliwice 0 - 1 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 55% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 15% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Lechia Gdansk?
Record (3 meetings): Piast Gliwice 2W | Draws 0 | Lechia Gdansk 1W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Lechia Gdansk in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Lechia Gdansk's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Lechia Gdansk's attack (0.66x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.57.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 18.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.5%), 2-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
55%
1.83
30%
3.32
15%
6.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
1.90
0.57
Lechia Gdansk xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
6.61
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.07
67%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
57%
1.76
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
31%
3.22
4%
24.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 8.5 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.0 | 11.3 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 0.57 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Piast Gliwice's recent record stands at 29W 17D 21L from 67 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Lechia Gdansk, meanwhile, have gone 24W 15D 28L across 67 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Piast Gliwice against 1.30 for Lechia Gdansk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Piast Gliwice have managed 13W 8D 12L from 33 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lechia Gdansk's away record stands at 7W 7D 19L across 33 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lechia Gdansk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.19 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
Lechia Gdansk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 29W 17D 21L in their last 67 games (1.55 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 24W 15D 28L in their last 67 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.42 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lechia Gdansk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
2
Draws
4
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Lechia Gdansk?
From 8 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Lechia Gdansk have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Lechia Gdansk?
Lechia Gdansk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 54%, Lechia Gdansk 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Piast Gliwice) and 54% (Lechia Gdansk).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 27% of games; Lechia Gdansk in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Lechia Gdansk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 46% of Lechia Gdansk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 54% of Lechia Gdansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lechia Gdansk defy the odds to beat Piast Gliwice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Piast Gliwice 0-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.33 xG and Lechia Gdansk 0.57 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Piast Gliwice fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.83 / defence 0.81 against Lechia Gdansk attack 0.66 / defence 1.18, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 55% | Draw 30% | Lechia Gdansk 15%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Lechia Gdansk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 31%, Lechia Gdansk 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.55 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lechia Gdansk win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.