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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Saturday 14 January 2023

Wed 11 Thu 12 Fri 13 Sat 14 Sun 15 Mon 16 Tue 17

Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

20 fixtures cleared the bar on Saturday 14 January 2023. Cheltenham vs Derby sits top on 77% in the League One. The shortlist runs from 77% down to 61%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.

League One supplies three of the top 10, so the day's profile is concentrated rather than spread evenly.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, ten landed the under 2.5 goals market — 50%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

League One · England 77%

Under 2.5 77% BTTS No 68%

League One · England 75%

Under 2.5 75% ✓ BTTS No 67%

Serie A · Italy 73%

Under 2.5 73% BTTS No 64%

Jupiler Pro League · Belgium 70%

✓ Under 2.5 70% BTTS No 64%

Championship · England 67%

Under 2.5 67% BTTS No 60%

League Two · England 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 59%

Championship · England 67%

Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 59%

Championship · England 66%

Under 2.5 66% BTTS No 59%

League One · England 66%

✓ Under 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS No 58%

#10

League Two · England 65%

✓ Under 2.5 65% ✓ BTTS No 61%

#11

Serie B · Italy 65%

Under 2.5 65% BTTS No 56%

#12

League Two · England 64%

✓ Under 2.5 64% ✓ BTTS No 57%

#13

Premier League · England 64%

Under 2.5 64% BTTS No 56%

#14

League Two · England 63%

✓ Under 2.5 63% BTTS No 56%

#15

Premier League · England 62%

✓ Under 2.5 62% ✓ BTTS No 55%

#16

Primeira Liga · Portugal 62%

✓ Under 2.5 62% ✓ BTTS No 58%

#17

League Two · England 62%

Under 2.5 62% ✓ BTTS No 56%

#18

Championship · England 62%

✓ Under 2.5 62% BTTS No 55%

#19

League Two · England 62%

Under 2.5 62% BTTS No 55%

#20

Serie B · Italy 61%

✓ Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 54%

Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No Over 2.5 Goals

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Under 2.5 Goals — common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Saturday 14 January 2023?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Cheltenham vs Derby at 77% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.