Cheltenham 2-3 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Cheltenham take on Derby.
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Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Derby travel to Completely-Suzuki Stadium to take on Cheltenham. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 January 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cheltenham — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cheltenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cheltenham at Completely-Suzuki Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Completely-Suzuki Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League One games this season, Derby have recorded 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Derby are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Cheltenham's 30% rate and Derby's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Profile
Cheltenham in-play tendencies (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Derby in-play tendencies (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 54% versus Derby 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 50% | Derby 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 0.81 xG and Derby 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.838 / defence 0.943 | Derby attack 0.812 / defence 0.751. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.120. Derby's defence strength of 0.751 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 70 Cheltenham games / 24 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 31% | Draw 35% | Derby 34%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Derby 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.67. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.67 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Cheltenham's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cheltenham 30% | Derby 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Completely-Suzuki Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 31% | Draw 35% | Derby 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 32% | xG Cheltenham 0.81 / Derby 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.838 / def 0.943 | Derby attack 0.812 / def 0.751 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Derby xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cheltenham vs Derby kick off?
Cheltenham vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Derby?
Cheltenham 2 - 3 Derby.
Where is Cheltenham vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Derby part of?
Cheltenham vs Derby is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 31% chance of winning, Derby a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Cheltenham and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Cheltenham vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cheltenham and Derby in?
Cheltenham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Derby (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cheltenham's attack rating (0.84) and Derby's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Cheltenham's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.22
35%
2.84
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
1.67
0.86
Derby xG
3.22
31%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.09
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
15%
6.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.8 | 16.2 | 6.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.1 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.5%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Cheltenham and 0.86 for Derby, a combined total of 1.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 70 outings, Cheltenham have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 21W 21D 28L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cheltenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby's form line: 25W 21D 24L from 70 games, 1.37 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cheltenham on 1.20 PPG, Derby on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cheltenham have posted 1.56 PPG from 34 outings (15W 8D 11L).
On the road, Derby have gone 6W 12D 16L from 34 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cheltenham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cheltenham are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.11 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cheltenham and Derby in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 21W 21D 28L in their last 70 games (1.20 PPG), while Derby have gone 25W 21D 24L in their last 70 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Derby away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.56 PPG; Derby away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Cheltenham or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cheltenham have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Derby in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cheltenham and Derby runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cheltenham's record when hosting Derby specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cheltenham
1
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Derby?
From 4 meetings on record, Cheltenham have won 0, Derby have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Derby 2-1 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Cheltenham and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Derby see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 53%, Derby 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cheltenham) and 26% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Cheltenham keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Derby in 32%; Derby in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cheltenham play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 35% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cheltenham vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cheltenham's recent games and 26% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Derby tend to score early?
Cheltenham have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Derby in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Cheltenham 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Cheltenham 2-3 at Completely-Suzuki Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 0.81 xG and Derby 0.86 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Cheltenham beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Derby outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.84 / defence 0.94 against Derby attack 0.81 / defence 0.75, drawn from 70/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 31% | Draw 35% | Derby 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Derby win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 50%, Derby 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Derby's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.20 PPG, Derby 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Cheltenham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.