Reggina 0-1 Spal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Reggina (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Reggina face Spal.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reggina host Spal at Stadio Oreste Granillo in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 January 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Reggina have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Reggina have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spal stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spal's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Reggina carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
Reggina hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Spal, with 0 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 3–1 with Reggina winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Reggina and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Reggina in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Spal in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 33% versus Spal 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggina 40% | Spal 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.29 xG and Spal 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 1.226 / defence 1.097 | Spal attack 0.787 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.089. Data: 57 Reggina games / 57 Spal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 43% | Draw 32% | Spal 25%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Spal 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggina at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Reggina 40% | Spal 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 43% | Draw 32% | Spal 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Reggina 1.29 / Spal 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 1.226 / def 1.097 | Spal attack 0.787 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Reggina (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Spal xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Spal kick off?
Reggina vs Spal kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Spal?
Reggina 0 - 1 Spal.
Where is Reggina vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Spal part of?
Reggina vs Spal is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 43% chance of winning, Spal a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Reggina and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Spal?
Record (3 meetings): Reggina 3W | Draws 0 | Spal 0W.
What form are Reggina and Spal in?
Reggina (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Spal (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Reggina's attack rating (1.23) and Spal's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Spal's attack versus Reggina's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
43%
2.34
32%
3.14
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.23
0.94
Spal xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
7%
14.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Reggina and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Reggina and 0.94 for Spal, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Spal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Reggina have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 24W 12D 21L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spal's form line: 13W 23D 21L from 57 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reggina on 1.47 PPG, Spal on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Reggina have posted 1.64 PPG from 28 outings (14W 4D 10L).
On the road, Spal have gone 6W 13D 9L from 28 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Reggina are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Spal are on 1.18 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Blended
Spal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Spal in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 24W 12D 21L in their last 57 games (1.47 PPG), while Spal have gone 13W 23D 21L in their last 57 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Spal away?
Reggina's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 1.64 PPG; Spal away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Reggina or Spal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Spal in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reggina and Spal runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Reggina's record when hosting Spal specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Reggina
0
Draws
1
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Spal?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggina have won 3, Spal have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2023, when Reggina 0-1 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Reggina and Spal?
Reggina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 36%, Spal 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Reggina) and 32% (Spal).
On the defensive side: Reggina keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Reggina have failed to score in 32% of games; Spal in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Spal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Reggina's recent matches and 43% of Spal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggina vs Spal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Reggina's recent games and 32% of Spal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggina and Spal tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Spal in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Spal defy the odds to beat Reggina 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spal beat Reggina 0-1 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.29 xG and Spal 0.94 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Reggina fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 1.23 / defence 1.10 against Spal attack 0.79 / defence 0.93, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 43% | Draw 32% | Spal 25%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Spal win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 40%, Spal 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Spal's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggina 1.47 PPG, Spal 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spal win broke the near-deadlock. Reggina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Spal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.