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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Sunday 18 September 2022

Thu 15 Fri 16 Sat 17 Sun 18 Mon 19 Tue 20 Wed 21

Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

20 fixtures cleared the bar on Sunday 18 September 2022. Casa Pia vs Famalicao sits top on 78% in the Primeira Liga. The shortlist runs from 78% down to 61%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.

Serie A supplies three of the top 10, so the day's profile is concentrated rather than spread evenly.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, 13 landed the under 2.5 goals market — 65%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Portugal 78%

✓ Under 2.5 78% ✓ BTTS No 70%

Canadian Premier League · Canada 77%

✓ Under 2.5 77% BTTS No 68%

Super League 1 · Greece 74%

Under 2.5 74% BTTS No 63%

Premier League · England 70%

✓ Under 2.5 70% ✓ BTTS No 61%

Serie A · Italy 70%

✓ Under 2.5 70% ✓ BTTS No 60%

Serie A · Brazil 70%

Under 2.5 70% BTTS No 67% Atletico Paranaense Clean Sheet 55%

Czech Liga · Czech-Republic 70%

✓ Under 2.5 70% ✓ BTTS No 62%

Eredivisie · Netherlands 69%

Under 2.5 69% BTTS No 62%

Allsvenskan · Sweden 69%

Under 2.5 69% BTTS No 62%

#10

Serie A · Brazil 69%

✓ Under 2.5 69% ✓ BTTS No 61%

#11

Super League 1 · Greece 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% BTTS No 57%

#12

Bundesliga · Austria 65%

✓ Under 2.5 65% BTTS No 60%

#13

Serie A · Brazil 65%

✓ Under 2.5 65% ✓ BTTS No 59%

#14

Serie A · Italy 65%

Under 2.5 65% ✓ BTTS No 56%

#15

La Liga · Spain 64%

Under 2.5 64% BTTS No 64% Real Betis Clean Sheet 53%

#16

Serie A · Brazil 64%

✓ Under 2.5 64% ✓ BTTS No 60%

#17

Serie A · Italy 63%

✓ Under 2.5 63% ✓ BTTS No 55%

#18

Serie A · Brazil 61%

✓ Under 2.5 61% BTTS No 55%

#19

Primeira Liga · Portugal 61%

Under 2.5 61% BTTS No 56%

#20

Challenger Pro League · Belgium 61%

✓ Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 53%

Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No Over 2.5 Goals

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Under 2.5 Goals — common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Sunday 18 September 2022?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Casa Pia vs Famalicao at 78% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.