AS Roma 0-1 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as AS Roma take on Atalanta.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Atalanta meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 September 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
AS Roma (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, AS Roma have posted 6W 4D 0L at Stadio Olimpico — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Atalanta's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Atalanta have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Atalanta's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — AS Roma have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Atalanta in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for AS Roma, 0 for Atalanta and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with AS Roma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Atalanta goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 48% versus Atalanta 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 50% | Atalanta 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 0.93 xG and Atalanta 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.042 / defence 0.767 | Atalanta attack 1.147 / defence 0.666. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.113. Atalanta's defence strength of 0.666 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 AS Roma games / 44 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 30% | Draw 37% | Atalanta 33%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 3.33 | Draw 2.70 | Atalanta 3.03. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 30% | Atalanta 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 30% | Draw 37% | Atalanta 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG AS Roma 0.93 / Atalanta 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.042 / def 0.767 | Atalanta attack 1.147 / def 0.666 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Atalanta xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Atalanta kick off?
AS Roma vs Atalanta kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Atalanta?
AS Roma 0 - 1 Atalanta.
Where is AS Roma vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Atalanta part of?
AS Roma vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 30% chance of winning, Atalanta a 33% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both AS Roma and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Atalanta?
Record (2 meetings): AS Roma 2W | Draws 0 | Atalanta 0W.
What form are AS Roma and Atalanta in?
AS Roma (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Atalanta (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.04) and Atalanta's defence rating (0.67), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atalanta's attack (1.15x) against AS Roma's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.30
37%
2.73
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
AS Roma xG
Total xG
1.91
0.98
Atalanta xG
3.30
30%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
11%
8.78
13%
7.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 14.6 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.98 for Atalanta, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AS Roma's recent record stands at 22W 10D 12L from 44 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Atalanta, meanwhile, have gone 20W 13D 11L across 44 games — 1.66 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Atalanta, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for AS Roma against 1.66 for Atalanta. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 12W 6D 3L from 21 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atalanta's away record stands at 14W 3D 4L across 21 trips, a 2.14 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.66 PPG overall record — Atalanta travel well.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.70 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atalanta in 61%.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Early Season
Atalanta
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Atalanta in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 22W 10D 12L in their last 44 games (1.73 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 20W 13D 11L in their last 44 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.00 PPG; Atalanta away: 2.14 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Atalanta in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 1-4 on 18 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atalanta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AS Roma
2
Draws
6
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Atalanta?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 2, Atalanta have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when AS Roma 1-1 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 38%, Atalanta 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (AS Roma) and 48% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Atalanta in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Atalanta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of AS Roma's recent matches and 48% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of AS Roma's recent games and 48% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Atalanta tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atalanta edge out AS Roma 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat AS Roma 0-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 0.93 xG and Atalanta 0.98 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AS Roma fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.04 / defence 0.77 against Atalanta attack 1.15 / defence 0.67, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 30% | Draw 37% | Atalanta 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Atalanta win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 50%, Atalanta 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Atalanta's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.73 PPG, Atalanta 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Atalanta (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.