OFI 1-1 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs PAOK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees PAOK travel to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to take on OFI. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 September 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OFI at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PAOK — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAOK's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. PAOK's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of OFI's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for OFI, 2 for PAOK and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 0–3 with PAOK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
OFI trading profile (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
PAOK trading profile (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 54% versus PAOK 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 51% | PAOK 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 0.83 xG and PAOK 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.923 / defence 1.247 | PAOK attack 0.959 / defence 0.804. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 0.995. Data: 30 OFI games / 30 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 22% | Draw 37% | PAOK 41%. Fair-value odds: OFI 4.55 | Draw 2.70 | PAOK 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OFI 60% | PAOK 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 22% | Draw 37% | PAOK 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG OFI 0.83 / PAOK 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.923 / def 1.247 | PAOK attack 0.959 / def 0.804 | league avg home 1.121 / away 0.995 • Poisson stance: PAOK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.19
PAOK xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs PAOK kick off?
OFI vs PAOK kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs PAOK?
OFI 1 - 1 PAOK.
Where is OFI vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs PAOK part of?
OFI vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 22% chance of winning, PAOK a 41% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both OFI and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and PAOK?
Record (2 meetings): OFI 0W | Draws 0 | PAOK 2W.
What form are OFI and PAOK in?
OFI (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. PAOK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from OFI's attack rating (0.92) and PAOK's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
22%
4.46
37%
2.74
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
OFI xG
Total xG
2.02
1.19
PAOK xG
4.46
22%
Home win
2.74
37%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
7%
14.67
18%
5.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 15.8 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are OFI and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for OFI and 1.19 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OFI come into this having played 37 games, going 12W 11D 14L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 1.84 PPG from 37 outings (20W 8D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of OFI — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
OFI's home form reads 6W 3D 8L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 1.47 points per game from 17 outings (7W 4D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.59 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Early Season
PAOK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and PAOK in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 12W 11D 14L in their last 37 games (1.27 PPG), while PAOK have gone 20W 8D 9L in their last 37 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.24 PPG; PAOK away: 1.47 PPG.
Have OFI or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, PAOK in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
PAOK have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2025, when PAOK won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OFI
2
Draws
6
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 2, PAOK have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OFI and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when PAOK 3-0 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 65%, PAOK 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (OFI) and 41% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: PAOK in 41%; PAOK in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of OFI's recent matches and 41% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of OFI's recent games and 41% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and PAOK tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, PAOK in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OFI and PAOK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI and PAOK finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 0.83 xG and PAOK 1.19 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.92 / defence 1.25 against PAOK attack 0.96 / defence 0.80, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 22% | Draw 37% | PAOK 41%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 51%, PAOK 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
PAOK's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.