Under 2.5 Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Sunday 28 August 2022
Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.
The model shortlists 20 fixtures on Sunday 28 August 2022. Cuiaba vs Santos led the list at 83% in the Serie A. The shortlist runs from 83% down to 63%, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.
The shortlist spans seven different competitions, a broad spread rather than one division dominating.
Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, eleven landed the under 2.5 goals market — 55%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Serie A · Brazil
83%
Allsvenskan · Sweden
82%
Serie A · Brazil
71%
Premier League · Ukraine
71%
Superettan · Sweden
70%
Ekstraklasa · Poland
70%
Thai League 1 · Thailand
69%
Premier League · Russia
68%
Süper Lig · Turkey
67%
Allsvenskan · Sweden
67%
Primeira Liga · Portugal
67%
Ekstraklasa · Poland
66%
Serie A · Brazil
65%
Ekstraklasa · Poland
65%
Super League 1 · Greece
64%
Primera División · Chile
64%
Premier League · Ukraine
64%
Primeira Liga · Portugal
64%
Super League · China
64%
La Liga · Spain
63%
Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
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Portuguese Football PredictionsUnder 2.5 Goals — common questions
What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?
Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Sunday 28 August 2022?
20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Cuiaba vs Santos at 83% under 2.5 probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.