Ratchaburi 1-0 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior meet at Mitr Phol Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 August 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi at Mitr Phol Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Lamphun Warrior have collected 0.50 PPG across 2 Thai League 1 outings this season: 0W 1D 1L. Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Ratchaburi's 1.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Lamphun Warrior's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.17 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.030 / defence 0.876 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.706 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.275. Data: 32 Ratchaburi games / 2 Lamphun Warrior games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 45% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 25%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Lamphun Warrior 4.00. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Mitr Phol Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 45% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Ratchaburi 1.17 / Lamphun Warrior 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.030 / def 0.876 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.706 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Lamphun Warrior xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior?
Ratchaburi 1 - 0 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 45% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Lamphun Warrior's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (0.71x) against Ratchaburi's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
45%
2.23
30%
3.29
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
1.96
0.79
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
8%
13.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 11.1 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.79 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ratchaburi's recent record stands at 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamphun Warrior, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ratchaburi by 2.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lamphun Warrior heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 0.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ratchaburi have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Lamphun Warrior in 0%.
Defensively: Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Lamphun Warrior in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Ratchaburi or Lamphun Warrior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Lamphun Warrior in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ratchaburi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won 5-0 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
3
Draws
1
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-2 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 0% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 0% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Lamphun Warrior 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Lamphun Warrior 1-0 at Mitr Phol Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.17 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.79 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.03 / defence 0.88 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.71 / defence 0.89, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 45% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 25%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 0%, Lamphun Warrior 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.