Over 2.5 Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest predicted over 2.5 probability — Friday 14 August 2026
Over 2.5 goals is the most widely-backed goals market — it needs at least 3 goals in the match. Our prediction model calculates this as the probability of at least 3 total goals, sitting between the safer over 1.5 and higher-risk over 3.5 markets. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.
The model shortlists 17 fixtures on Friday 14 August 2026. Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon sits top on 81% in the Super League. The shortlist runs from 81% down to 56%, so the depth of the card matters as much as the headline pick.
Eerste Divisie supplies three of the top 10, which is worth noting if you are spreading selections across leagues.
Of the 17 fixtures on this list that have since finished, 16 landed the over 2.5 goals market — 94%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Super League · China
Superettan · Sweden
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Pro League · United-Arab-Emirates
Eredivisie · Netherlands
Süper Lig · Turkey
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Ligue 2 · France
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
2. Bundesliga · Germany
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Showing top 17 fixtures by over 2.5 goals probability (≥ 55%). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
Over 2.5 Goals — common questions
What does the Over 2.5 Goals market mean?
Over 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with at least 3 total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate over 2.5 goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The over 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of at least 3 total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Over 2.5 Goals on Friday 14 August 2026?
17 fixtures met the criteria, led by Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon at 81% over 2.5 probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 55% or higher over 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these over 2.5 goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.