Waalwijk 2-2 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Waalwijk and Dordrecht meet at Mandemakers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Friday 14 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Waalwijk's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dordrecht (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Waalwijk register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Dordrecht in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Waalwijk, 0 for Dordrecht and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Waalwijk — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 80% and Dordrecht 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 67% | Dordrecht 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.91 xG and Dordrecht 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.154 / defence 0.983 | Dordrecht attack 0.947 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.449. Data: 39 Waalwijk games / 39 Dordrecht games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 51% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 27%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | Dordrecht 3.70. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waalwijk if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 70% | Dordrecht 90% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 51% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Waalwijk 1.91 / Dordrecht 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.154 / def 0.983 | Dordrecht attack 0.947 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Dordrecht xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Dordrecht kick off?
Waalwijk vs Dordrecht kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 14 August 2026 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Dordrecht?
Waalwijk 2 - 2 Dordrecht.
Where is Waalwijk vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Dordrecht part of?
Waalwijk vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 51% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Waalwijk and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Dordrecht?
Record (2 meetings): Waalwijk 1W | Draws 1 | Dordrecht 0W.
What form are Waalwijk and Dordrecht in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 1.15x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.95x) against Waalwijk's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
51%
1.97
22%
4.49
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.26
1.35
Dordrecht xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
15%
6.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
4%
25.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.35 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Waalwijk come into this having played 39 games, going 14W 13D 12L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.28 PPG from 39 outings (13W 11D 15L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Waalwijk against 1.28 for Dordrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Waalwijk's home form reads 8W 4D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 1.26 points per game from 19 outings (6W 6D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Waalwijk are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.28 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games; Dordrecht in 64%.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Early Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 14W 13D 12L in their last 39 games (1.41 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 13W 11D 15L in their last 39 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Dordrecht away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.47 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Waalwijk
2
Draws
0
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Dordrecht?
From 3 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 1, Dordrecht have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Waalwijk 2-2 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Dordrecht?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 79% for Waalwijk, 68% for Dordrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Waalwijk and 63% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Waalwijk's games and 68% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Waalwijk's matches and 63% of Dordrecht's.
Do Waalwijk and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk and Dordrecht share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 2, as Waalwijk and Dordrecht drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.91 xG and Dordrecht 1.35 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 1.15 / defence 0.98 against Dordrecht attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 51% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 27%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 67%, Dordrecht 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.41 PPG, Dordrecht 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.