Over 2.5 Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest predicted over 2.5 probability — Friday 22 September 2023
Over 2.5 goals is the most widely-backed goals market — it needs at least 3 goals in the match. Our prediction model calculates this as the probability of at least 3 total goals, sitting between the safer over 1.5 and higher-risk over 3.5 markets. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.
The model shortlists 15 fixtures on Friday 22 September 2023. VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98 led the list at 79% in the Bundesliga. The shortlist runs from 79% down to 56%, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.
Eerste Divisie supplies four of the top 10, which is worth noting if you are spreading selections across leagues.
Of the 15 fixtures on this list that have since finished, eight landed the over 2.5 goals market — 53%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Bundesliga · Germany
2. Bundesliga · Germany
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Superettan · Sweden
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Eredivisie · Netherlands
Veikkausliiga · Finland
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
2. Bundesliga · Germany
Süper Lig · Turkey
Ligue 1 · France
Super League · China
Showing top 15 fixtures by over 2.5 goals probability (≥ 55%). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
Over 2.5 Goals — common questions
What does the Over 2.5 Goals market mean?
Over 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with at least 3 total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate over 2.5 goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The over 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of at least 3 total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Over 2.5 Goals on Friday 22 September 2023?
15 fixtures met the criteria, led by VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98 at 79% over 2.5 probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 55% or higher over 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these over 2.5 goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.