IK brage 2-1 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IK brage at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IK brage vs Orebro SK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen plays host to IK brage versus Orebro SK in Superettan, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Friday 22 September 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IK brage have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IK brage have posted 6W 2D 2L at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — IK brage are significantly better at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen than their overall form suggests.
Orebro SK (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Orebro SK are 0.60 PPG clear of IK brage in recent Superettan fixtures (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — IK brage have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Orebro SK in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across 3 previous meetings, IK brage are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 2–0 with IK brage winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both IK brage and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
IK brage half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Orebro SK half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 60% versus Orebro SK 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 60% | Orebro SK 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.82 xG and Orebro SK 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.076 / defence 1.030 | Orebro SK attack 1.101 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.219. Data: 52 IK brage games / 52 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 47% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 28%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Orebro SK 3.57. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
IK brage dominate the H2H record, yet Orebro SK are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is IK brage at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Orebro SK (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IK brage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 60% | Orebro SK 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Friday 22 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 47% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG IK brage 1.82 / Orebro SK 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.076 / def 1.030 | Orebro SK attack 1.101 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: IK brage (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Orebro SK xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Orebro SK kick off?
IK brage vs Orebro SK kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 22 September 2023 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Orebro SK?
IK brage 2 - 1 Orebro SK.
Where is IK brage vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Orebro SK part of?
IK brage vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 47% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both IK brage and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Orebro SK?
Record (3 meetings): IK brage 3W | Draws 0 | Orebro SK 0W.
What form are IK brage and Orebro SK in?
IK brage (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IK brage's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Orebro SK's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. Flip it around — Orebro SK's attack (1.10x) against IK brage's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
47%
2.15
25%
3.95
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
IK brage xG
Total xG
3.20
1.38
Orebro SK xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
16%
6.16
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
5%
21.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.2 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are IK brage and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for IK brage and 1.38 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, IK brage have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 18W 14D 20L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orebro SK's form line: 16W 17D 19L from 52 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for IK brage against 1.25 for Orebro SK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, IK brage have posted 1.44 PPG from 25 outings (10W 6D 9L).
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 6W 7D 12L from 25 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IK brage are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.19 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 18W 14D 20L in their last 52 games (1.31 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 16W 17D 19L in their last 52 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Orebro SK away?
IK brage's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.44 PPG; Orebro SK away: 1.00 PPG.
Have IK brage or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
IK brage have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 8 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IK brage won 3-0 on 4 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IK brage have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
IK brage
1
Draws
2
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Orebro SK?
From 9 meetings on record, IK brage have won 6, Orebro SK have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Orebro SK 0-3 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Orebro SK?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 60%, Orebro SK 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for IK brage and 60% for Orebro SK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of IK brage's games and 52% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IK brage vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of IK brage's matches and 60% of Orebro SK's.
Do IK brage and Orebro SK tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IK brage edge out Orebro SK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Orebro SK 2-1 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 23, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.82 xG and Orebro SK 1.38 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.08 / defence 1.03 against Orebro SK attack 1.10 / defence 1.10, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 47% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 28%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 60%, Orebro SK 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Orebro SK's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.31 PPG, Orebro SK 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.