Draw No Bet Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest draw no bet probability — Sunday 30 April 2023
Draw No Bet backs a side to win, with the stake returned if the match is drawn. Our prediction model takes the side's win probability as a share of all decisive results, ignoring the draw. Only selections at 70%+ probability are shown.
20 matches cleared our threshold on Sunday 30 April 2023. Bayern München vs Hertha BSC (Bayern München (draw no bet)) led the list at 93% in the Bundesliga. The shortlist runs from 93% down to 76%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.
The shortlist spans nine different competitions, so there is no single league driving the day.
Of the 17 fixtures on this list that have since finished, 14 landed the draw no bet market — 82%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Bundesliga · Germany
Bayern München (draw no bet)
93%
Ligue 1 · France
Rennes (draw no bet)
93%
Eliteserien · Norway
Molde (draw no bet)
89%
Czech Liga · Czech-Republic
Slavia Praha (draw no bet)
87%
Süper Lig · Turkey
Başakşehir (draw no bet)
87%
Premier League · England
Liverpool (draw no bet)
85%
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Malmo FF (draw no bet)
84%
Super League · Switzerland
BSC Young Boys (draw no bet)
83%
Super League 1 · Greece
Olympiakos Piraeus (draw no bet)
83%
Czech Liga · Czech-Republic
Mlada Boleslav (draw no bet)
83%
Primeira Liga · Portugal
FC Porto (draw no bet)
82%
Super League 1 · Greece
PAOK (draw no bet)
82%
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Sporting CP (draw no bet)
81%
Premier League · England
Newcastle (draw no bet)
80%
Thai League 1 · Thailand
Muangthong United (draw no bet)
79%
Czech Liga · Czech-Republic
Slovácko (draw no bet)
78%
Serie A · Brazil
Internacional (draw no bet)
77%
Ligue 1 · France
Paris Saint Germain (draw no bet)
77%
Premier League · England
Manchester City (draw no bet)
76%
Czech Liga · Czech-Republic
Plzen (draw no bet)
76%
Showing top 20 fixtures by draw no bet probability (a 70% or higher draw no bet probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
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Portuguese Football PredictionsDraw No Bet — common questions
What does the Draw No Bet market mean?
Draw No Bet settles on whether a match is won by the selected side, with the stake returned if it ends level. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate draw no bet probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The draw no bet probability shown here is the selected side's win probability divided by the chance the match has a winner at all, since a draw returns the stake. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Draw No Bet on Sunday 30 April 2023?
20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Bayern München vs Hertha BSC (Bayern München (draw no bet)) at 93% draw no bet probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 70% or higher draw no bet probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these draw no bet predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.