Plzen 1-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Teplice travel to Doosan Aréna to take on Plzen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 April 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Plzen — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Plzen's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Doosan Aréna this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Plzen are significantly better at Doosan Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Teplice have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Teplice have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Plzen 1.10 PPG, Teplice 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Plzen, 0 for Teplice and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Teplice in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 50% versus Teplice 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 56% | Teplice 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 2.30 xG and Teplice 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.156 / defence 0.944 | Teplice attack 1.073 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.222. Data: 59 Plzen games / 59 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 61% | Draw 20% | Teplice 19%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | Teplice 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 70% | Teplice 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 61% | Draw 20% | Teplice 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 64% | xG Plzen 2.30 / Teplice 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.156 / def 0.944 | Teplice attack 1.073 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Plzen (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Teplice xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Teplice kick off?
Plzen vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Teplice?
Plzen 1 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Plzen vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Teplice part of?
Plzen vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 61% chance of winning, Teplice a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Plzen and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Teplice?
Record (3 meetings): Plzen 2W | Draws 1 | Teplice 0W.
What form are Plzen and Teplice in?
Plzen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Teplice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Plzen's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.30. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
61%
1.65
20%
4.88
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Plzen xG
Total xG
3.53
1.24
Teplice xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
10%
9.93
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
2%
52.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Plzen and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Plzen and 1.24 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Plzen have picked up 2.20 PPG on a 43W 12D 9L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Teplice's form line: 17W 13D 34L from 64 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 1.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Plzen have posted 2.52 PPG from 31 outings (25W 3D 3L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 6W 5D 20L from 31 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.16 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Current Season
Teplice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Teplice in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 43W 12D 9L in their last 64 games (2.20 PPG), while Teplice have gone 17W 13D 34L in their last 64 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Teplice away?
Plzen's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.52 PPG; Teplice away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Plzen or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Teplice in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and Teplice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2024, when Plzen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Plzen
4
Draws
1
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 5, Teplice have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Plzen 2-2 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Teplice?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 48%, Teplice 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Plzen and 77% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Teplice in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Plzen's recent matches and 58% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Plzen's matches and 77% of Teplice's.
Do Plzen and Teplice tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Teplice in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen and Teplice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen and Teplice finished level at 1-1 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 2.30 xG and Teplice 1.24 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Plzen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.16 / defence 0.94 against Teplice attack 1.07 / defence 1.18, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 61% | Draw 20% | Teplice 19%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 56%, Teplice 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Teplice's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.