Olympiakos Piraeus 5-0 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face Volos NFC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Championship Round - 7 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to take on Olympiakos Piraeus. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 April 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Volos NFC have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Volos NFC have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Olympiakos Piraeus have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Olympiakos Piraeus, 0 for Volos NFC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2023, ended 3–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (65 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Volos NFC trading profile (65 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 51% versus Volos NFC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 51% | Volos NFC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.78 xG and Volos NFC 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.581 / defence 0.757 | Volos NFC attack 0.985 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.000. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.581 — their λ of 1.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.757 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 52 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 59% | Draw 29% | Volos NFC 12%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.69 | Draw 3.45 | Volos NFC 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (59%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | Volos NFC 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 7 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 59% | Draw 29% | Volos NFC 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.78 / Volos NFC 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.581 / def 0.757 | Volos NFC attack 0.985 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Volos NFC xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC?
Olympiakos Piraeus 5 - 0 Volos NFC.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC is a Championship Round - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 59% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 12% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC?
Record (3 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 2W | Draws 1 | Volos NFC 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking strength (1.58x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
59%
1.70
29%
3.44
12%
8.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.52
0.75
Volos NFC xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
8.31
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
2%
49.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 10.6 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.75 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Olympiakos Piraeus have picked up 2.14 PPG on a 41W 16D 8L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Volos NFC's form line: 21W 17D 27L from 65 games, 1.23 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Volos NFC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 2.32 PPG from 31 outings (22W 6D 3L).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 9W 12D 10L from 31 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.23 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
Volos NFC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 41W 16D 8L in their last 65 games (2.14 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 21W 17D 27L in their last 65 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Volos NFC away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.32 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
0
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 8, Volos NFC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Volos NFC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 55%, Volos NFC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 52% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Volos NFC in 36%; Volos NFC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 52% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 52% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Volos NFC 5-0 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Championship Round - 7, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.78 xG and Volos NFC 0.75 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.58 / defence 0.76 against Volos NFC attack 0.98 / defence 0.90, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 59% | Draw 29% | Volos NFC 12%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 51%, Volos NFC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Volos NFC's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.