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Draw No Bet Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest draw no bet probability — Sunday 5 March 2023

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Draw No Bet backs a side to win, with the stake returned if the match is drawn. Our prediction model takes the side's win probability as a share of all decisive results, ignoring the draw. Only selections at 70%+ probability are shown.

The model shortlists 20 fixtures on Sunday 5 March 2023. Reims vs Ajaccio (Reims (draw no bet)) sits top on 94% in the Ligue 1. The shortlist runs from 94% down to 75%, so the depth of the card matters as much as the headline pick.

The shortlist spans eight different competitions, so there is no single league driving the day.

Of the 18 fixtures on this list that have since finished, 15 landed the draw no bet market — 83%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · France Reims (draw no bet) 94%

Over 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 54%

Super League 1 · Greece Olympiakos Piraeus (draw no bet) 94%

✓ BTTS No 63% ✓ Olympiakos Piraeus Clean Sheet 61%

Süper Lig · Turkey Adana Demirspor (draw no bet) 91%

Thai League 1 · Thailand Buriram United (draw no bet) 88%

✓ Under 2.5 57% ✓ BTTS No 64% ✓ Buriram United Clean Sheet 58%

La Liga · Spain Barcelona (draw no bet) 87%

✓ Under 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS No 71% ✓ Barcelona Clean Sheet 64%

Jupiler Pro League · Belgium Antwerp (draw no bet) 86%

Under 2.5 54% ✓ BTTS No 59% ✓ Antwerp Clean Sheet 53%

Primeira Liga · Portugal SC Braga (draw no bet) 85%

✓ Under 2.5 60% ✓ BTTS No 65% ✓ SC Braga Clean Sheet 58%

Super League 1 · Greece PAOK (draw no bet) 82%

Under 2.5 71% ✓ BTTS No 66% ✓ PAOK Clean Sheet 59%

Jupiler Pro League · Belgium Union St. Gilloise (draw no bet) 81%

✓ Over 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS Yes 61%

#10

Eredivisie · Netherlands GO Ahead Eagles (draw no bet) 79%

✓ Over 2.5 57% ✓ BTTS Yes 55%

#11

Super League 1 · Greece Aris Thessalonikis (draw no bet) 78%

Under 2.5 58% BTTS No 53%

#12

Premier League · England Nottingham Forest (draw no bet) 78%

Under 2.5 66% BTTS No 64% Nottingham Forest Clean Sheet 53%

#13

Ligue 1 · France Monaco (draw no bet) 78%

#14

Eredivisie · Netherlands Ajax (draw no bet) 77%

✓ Under 2.5 54% ✓ BTTS No 53%

#15

Bundesliga · Germany Bayer Leverkusen (draw no bet) 77%

✓ Over 2.5 64% ✓ BTTS Yes 62%

#16

Süper Lig · Turkey Galatasaray (draw no bet) 77%

✓ Over 2.5 57% BTTS Yes 54%

#17

Serie A · Italy Inter (draw no bet) 76%

✓ Under 2.5 62% ✓ BTTS No 60%

#18

Super League 1 · Greece AEK Athens FC (draw no bet) 76%

Under 2.5 68% ✓ BTTS No 60%

#19

Thai League 1 · Thailand BG Pathum United (draw no bet) 75%

✓ Over 2.5 54% ✓ BTTS Yes 54%

#20

Premier League · Ukraine Shakhtar Donetsk (draw no bet) 75%

✓ Over 2.5 65% BTTS Yes 61%

Showing top 20 fixtures by draw no bet probability (a 70% or higher draw no bet probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

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Draw No Bet — common questions

What does the Draw No Bet market mean?

Draw No Bet settles on whether a match is won by the selected side, with the stake returned if it ends level. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate draw no bet probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The draw no bet probability shown here is the selected side's win probability divided by the chance the match has a winner at all, since a draw returns the stake. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Draw No Bet on Sunday 5 March 2023?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Reims vs Ajaccio (Reims (draw no bet)) at 94% draw no bet probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 70% or higher draw no bet probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these draw no bet predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.