Reims 1-0 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reims at 81% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reims vs Ajaccio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Ajaccio travel to Stade Auguste-Delaune II to take on Reims. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 March 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Reims — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Reims have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Ajaccio have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Ajaccio have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Reims are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Reims, 0 for Ajaccio and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2023, ended 1–0 with Reims winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Reims in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ajaccio in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 52% versus Ajaccio 30%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reims 41% | Ajaccio 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 2.83 xG and Ajaccio 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.260 / defence 0.754 | Ajaccio attack 0.677 / defence 1.522. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.270. Reims carry an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — their λ of 2.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ajaccio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.522 — this is suppressing Reims's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Reims's defence rating of 0.754 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Reims games / 25 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 81% | Draw 14% | Ajaccio 5%. Fair-value odds: Reims 1.23 | Draw 7.14 | Ajaccio 20.00. The model has a clear lean to Reims (81%) — a 76pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reims are the pick at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.48 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Reims 40% | Ajaccio 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 81% | Draw 14% | Ajaccio 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 46% | xG Reims 2.83 / Ajaccio 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 1.260 / def 0.754 | Ajaccio attack 0.677 / def 1.522 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Reims (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.83
Reims xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Ajaccio xG
46%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Ajaccio kick off?
Reims vs Ajaccio kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Ajaccio?
Reims 1 - 0 Ajaccio.
Where is Reims vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Ajaccio part of?
Reims vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 81% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 5% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Reims and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Ajaccio?
Record (1 meetings): Reims 1W | Draws 0 | Ajaccio 0W.
What form are Reims and Ajaccio in?
Reims (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Ajaccio (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Reims's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Ajaccio's defensive record (1.52x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.83. The same calculation in reverse, Ajaccio's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.4%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.6%), 4-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
81%
1.23
14%
7.20
5%
20.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.83
Reims xG
Total xG
3.48
0.65
Ajaccio xG
1.23
81%
Home win
7.20
14%
Draw
20.20
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
6%
16.89
Win to Nil
42%
2.36
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Reims and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 2.83 expected goals for Reims and 0.65 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Ajaccio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Reims come into this having played 63 games, going 19W 26D 18L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ajaccio sit at 1.52 PPG from 63 outings (28W 12D 23L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.32 PPG, Ajaccio on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Reims's home form reads 11W 10D 10L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajaccio have taken 1.39 points per game from 31 outings (12W 7D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Reims are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.94 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Ajaccio in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 19W 26D 18L in their last 63 games (1.32 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 28W 12D 23L in their last 63 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Ajaccio away?
Reims's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.39 PPG; Ajaccio away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Reims or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reims and Ajaccio runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Reims
0
Draws
0
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Ajaccio?
From 2 meetings on record, Reims have won 2, Ajaccio have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when Reims 1-0 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Ajaccio?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reims see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 52%, Ajaccio 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Reims) and 29% (Ajaccio).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Ajaccio in 42%; Reims have failed to score in 29% of games; Ajaccio in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Reims's recent matches and 29% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Reims's recent games and 29% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Reims edge out Ajaccio 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Ajaccio 1-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 2.83 xG and Ajaccio 0.65 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Reims fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.26 / defence 0.75 against Ajaccio attack 0.68 / defence 1.52, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 81% | Draw 14% | Ajaccio 5%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 81%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 41%, Ajaccio 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ajaccio's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.32 PPG, Ajaccio 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Ajaccio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.