OFI 0-3 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs AEK Athens FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees AEK Athens FC travel to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to take on OFI. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 March 2023, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
OFI — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, OFI have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AEK Athens FC stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AEK Athens FC are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for OFI, 1 for AEK Athens FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2022, ended 0–3 with AEK Athens FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
AEK Athens FC in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 49% versus AEK Athens FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 47% | AEK Athens FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 0.68 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.617 / defence 1.104 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.200 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 0.988. OFI's attack strength of 0.617 is below the league average — the 0.68 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 OFI games / 49 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 16% | Draw 36% | AEK Athens FC 48%. Fair-value odds: OFI 6.25 | Draw 2.78 | AEK Athens FC 2.08. AEK Athens FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AEK Athens FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: OFI 30% | AEK Athens FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 16% | Draw 36% | AEK Athens FC 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG OFI 0.68 / AEK Athens FC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.617 / def 1.104 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.200 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.203 / away 0.988 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.31
AEK Athens FC xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
OFI vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs AEK Athens FC?
OFI 0 - 3 AEK Athens FC.
Where is OFI vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs AEK Athens FC part of?
OFI vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 16% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 48% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both OFI and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and AEK Athens FC?
Record (3 meetings): OFI 1W | Draws 1 | AEK Athens FC 1W.
What form are OFI and AEK Athens FC in?
OFI (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
OFI's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against AEK Athens FC's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.68. The same calculation in reverse, AEK Athens FC's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 16.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
16%
6.39
36%
2.77
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
OFI xG
Total xG
1.99
1.31
AEK Athens FC xG
6.39
16%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
51%
1.97
Win to Nil
4%
23.70
25%
4.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 18.0 | 11.8 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are OFI and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for OFI and 1.31 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OFI's recent record stands at 17W 19D 21L from 57 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AEK Athens FC, meanwhile, have gone 32W 9D 16L across 57 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AEK Athens FC by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OFI heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, OFI have managed 8W 8D 12L from 28 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AEK Athens FC's away record stands at 13W 7D 8L across 28 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.68 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 17W 19D 21L in their last 57 games (1.23 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 32W 9D 16L in their last 57 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or AEK Athens FC away?
AEK Athens FC's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.14 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.64 PPG.
Have OFI or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 21 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AEK Athens FC have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2022, when AEK Athens FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting AEK Athens FC specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OFI
1
Draws
7
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 2, AEK Athens FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did OFI and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2025, when AEK Athens FC 2-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 50%, AEK Athens FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (OFI) and 46% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; AEK Athens FC in 36%; OFI have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of OFI's recent matches and 50% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of OFI's recent games and 46% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat OFI 0-3 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 0.68 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.31 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. AEK Athens FC outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.62 / defence 1.10 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.20 / defence 0.91, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 16% | Draw 36% | AEK Athens FC 48%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 47%, AEK Athens FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.