Suwon City FC 2-4 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Suwon City FC face Gimcheon Sangmu FC.

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Analysis

Gimcheon Sangmu FC make the trip to Suwon Sports Complex to face Suwon City FC in K League 1 (matchday 31). The match kicks off on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 09:30 UK time.

Form

Suwon City FC (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Suwon City FC's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Suwon City FC, 1 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Jul 2024, ended Suwon City FC 3–2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC — a Suwon City FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Suwon City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Gimcheon Sangmu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 57% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 57% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%). Note also that Gimcheon Sangmu FC surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Suwon City FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.58 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.033 / defence 1.299 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.753 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.233. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack rating of 0.753 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. Suwon City FC's defence rating of 1.299 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Gimcheon Sangmu FC's projected output up. Data: built from Suwon City FC's last 63 games and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 30.

Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 46% | Draw 25% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.18 | Draw 4.02 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.43. Suwon City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon City FC at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Suwon City FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% (last 10 away games).

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