Gwangju FC 0-2 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gwangju FC at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gwangju Football Stadium plays host to Gwangju FC versus Jeju United FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 08:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gwangju FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Gwangju FC's home record at Gwangju Football Stadium: 6W 0D 4L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Jeju United FC (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Jeju United FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Gwangju FC, 0 for Jeju United FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2024, ended 2–1 with Gwangju FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Gwangju FC half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Jeju United FC half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 43% versus Jeju United FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gwangju FC 38% | Jeju United FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.56 xG and Jeju United FC 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 0.860 / defence 0.927 | Jeju United FC attack 0.616 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.264. Jeju United FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Gwangju FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Gwangju FC games / 63 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 58% | Draw 25% | Jeju United FC 17%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Jeju United FC 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Gwangju FC (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gwangju FC at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Gwangju FC 40% | Jeju United FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 58% | Draw 25% | Jeju United FC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 41% | xG Gwangju FC 1.56 / Jeju United FC 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 0.860 / def 0.927 | Jeju United FC attack 0.616 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (58%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Jeju United FC xG
41%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC?
Gwangju FC 0 - 2 Jeju United FC.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 58% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC?
Record (2 meetings): Gwangju FC 2W | Draws 0 | Jeju United FC 0W.
What form are Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC in?
Gwangju FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Jeju United FC (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Gwangju FC's attack at 0.86x the league average against Jeju United FC's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (0.62x) against Gwangju FC's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
58%
1.74
25%
3.95
17%
5.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
2.29
0.72
Jeju United FC xG
1.74
58%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
5.83
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
4%
27.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 11.5 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 0.72 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 68 outings, Gwangju FC have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 29W 12D 27L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Jeju United FC's form line: 21W 13D 34L from 68 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Gwangju FC against 1.12 for Jeju United FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gwangju FC have posted 1.67 PPG from 33 outings (17W 4D 12L).
On the road, Jeju United FC have gone 7W 6D 20L from 33 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gwangju FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gwangju FC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.03 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 68 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 29W 12D 27L in their last 68 games (1.46 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 21W 13D 34L in their last 68 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Gwangju FC's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.67 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Gwangju FC or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gwangju FC have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Gwangju FC
2
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 6, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Gwangju FC 1-2 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gwangju FC 33%, Jeju United FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Gwangju FC) and 42% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Gwangju FC have failed to score in 36% of games; Jeju United FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gwangju FC play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Gwangju FC's recent matches and 48% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 42% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Gwangju FC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeju United FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Gwangju FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Gwangju FC 0-2 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.56 xG and Jeju United FC 0.72 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Gwangju FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Jeju United FC outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.93 against Jeju United FC attack 0.62 / defence 1.24, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 58% | Draw 25% | Jeju United FC 17%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Jeju United FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 38%, Jeju United FC 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.46 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.