Incheon United 0-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC make the trip to Sungui Arena Park to face Incheon United in K League 1, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 September 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Incheon United (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Incheon United at Sungui Arena Park this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Sungui Arena Park this season.
Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ulsan Hyundai FC are 0.50 PPG clear of Incheon United in recent K League 1 fixtures (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Incheon United, 2 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Incheon United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ulsan Hyundai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 48% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 38% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 0.97 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.698 / defence 1.048 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.851 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.280. Incheon United's attack strength of 0.698 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 63 Incheon United games / 63 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 31% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Incheon United 60% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 31% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Incheon United 0.97 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.698 / def 1.048 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.851 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Incheon United 0 - 0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 31% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (7 meetings): Incheon United 2W | Draws 3 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2W.
What form are Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Incheon United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Incheon United's attack rating (0.70) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (0.85x) against Incheon United's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
31%
3.26
30%
3.36
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.11
1.14
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
10%
10.21
15%
6.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 13.9 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Incheon United and 1.14 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 68 outings, Incheon United have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 21W 24D 23L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form line: 39W 13D 16L from 68 games, 1.91 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Incheon United.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Incheon United have posted 1.18 PPG from 33 outings (9W 12D 12L).
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 15W 6D 12L from 33 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Incheon United are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.66 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 68 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 21W 24D 23L in their last 68 games (1.28 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 39W 13D 16L in their last 68 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.18 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Incheon United or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ulsan Hyundai FC won 0-3 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Incheon United have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Incheon United
4
Draws
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-2 Incheon United.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 48%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Incheon United) and 48% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Incheon United have failed to score in 33% of games; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Incheon United's recent matches and 52% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Incheon United's recent games and 48% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Incheon United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 31, as Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC drew 0-0 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 0.97 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.14 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Incheon United fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Ulsan Hyundai FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.70 / defence 1.05 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.85 / defence 0.95, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 31% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 38%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Incheon United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.