Daejeon Citizen 0-0 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors meet at Daejeon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 September 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Daejeon Citizen have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Daejeon Citizen's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Daejeon World Cup Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Jeonbuk Motors (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Daejeon Citizen, 1.70 for Jeonbuk Motors — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Daejeon Citizen, 0 for Jeonbuk Motors and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Daejeon Citizen — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Jeonbuk Motors — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daejeon Citizen 63% versus Jeonbuk Motors 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daejeon Citizen 50% | Jeonbuk Motors 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 1.42 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.929 / defence 0.887 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.190 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.280. Data: 63 Daejeon Citizen games / 63 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 25% | Jeonbuk Motors 36%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Daejeon Citizen are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data: Daejeon Citizen 50% | Jeonbuk Motors 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 25% | Jeonbuk Motors 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Daejeon Citizen 1.42 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.929 / def 0.887 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.190 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Jeonbuk Motors xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Daejeon Citizen 0 - 0 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 39% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors?
Record (2 meetings): Daejeon Citizen 0W | Draws 2 | Jeonbuk Motors 0W.
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Daejeon Citizen's attack rating (0.93) and Jeonbuk Motors's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jeonbuk Motors's attack (1.19x) against Daejeon Citizen's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
39%
2.57
25%
3.94
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
2.77
1.35
Jeonbuk Motors xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
10%
9.92
9%
11.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.35 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Daejeon Citizen come into this having played 68 games, going 20W 25D 23L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Jeonbuk Motors sit at 1.32 PPG from 68 outings (24W 18D 26L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Daejeon Citizen against 1.32 for Jeonbuk Motors. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Daejeon Citizen's home form reads 14W 10D 10L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeonbuk Motors have taken 1.09 points per game from 34 outings (10W 7D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daejeon Citizen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.25 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 68 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 20W 25D 23L in their last 68 games (1.25 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 24W 18D 26L in their last 68 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daejeon Citizen at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Daejeon Citizen's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daejeon Citizen at home: 1.53 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daejeon Citizen have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Jeonbuk Motors — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Daejeon Citizen
5
Draws
4
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Daejeon Citizen have won 1, Jeonbuk Motors have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 0-0 Daejeon Citizen.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daejeon Citizen 56%, Jeonbuk Motors 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Daejeon Citizen) and 44% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen have failed to score in 26% of games; Jeonbuk Motors in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daejeon Citizen play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Daejeon Citizen's recent matches and 35% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Daejeon Citizen's recent games and 44% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors tend to score early?
Daejeon Citizen have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Daejeon Citizen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors finished level at 0-0 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.42 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.35 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Jeonbuk Motors landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.93 / defence 0.89 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.19 / defence 1.05, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 25% | Jeonbuk Motors 36%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 50%, Jeonbuk Motors 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.25 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.