Vizela 1-4 Boavista – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vizela at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Vizela face Boavista.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Do Vizela plays host to Vizela versus Boavista in Primeira Liga (matchday 17). Kick-off: Sunday 14 January 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Vizela (all games): 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Vizela at home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Boavista's record over their last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Boavista have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Vizela against 0.40 for Boavista. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Vizela, 0 for Boavista and 4 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Apr 2023, ended Vizela 1–1 Boavista — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Vizela half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Boavista half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 42% versus Boavista 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 42% | Boavista 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Vizela surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Boavista have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 1.23 xG and Boavista 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.745 / defence 1.018 | Boavista attack 0.853 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.273. Vizela's attack rating of 0.745 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.23. Data: built from Vizela's last 50 games and Boavista's last 50.
Result probabilities: Vizela 39% | Draw 28% | Boavista 33%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 2.58 | Draw 3.52 | Boavista 3.05. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vizela at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vizela if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Vizela 50% (last 10 home games) | Boavista 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 17 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Sunday 14 January 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 39% | Draw 28% | Boavista 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Vizela 1.23 / Boavista 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.745 / def 1.018 | Boavista attack 0.853 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Vizela (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Boavista xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vizela vs Boavista FAQs
What time does Vizela vs Boavista kick off?
Vizela vs Boavista kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Boavista?
Vizela 1 - 4 Boavista.
Where is Vizela vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Boavista part of?
Vizela vs Boavista is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 17) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 39% chance of winning, Boavista a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vizela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Vizela and Boavista will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Vizela vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Vizela's attack rating (0.74) and Boavista's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Boavista's attack (0.85x) against Vizela's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from Vizela's last 50 games and Boavista's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vizela Win
39%
2.58
28%
3.52
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.34
1.11
Boavista xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
10%
10.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.7 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vizela vs Boavista Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Vizela and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Vizela and 1.11 for Boavista, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vizela come into this having played 50 games, going 13W 14D 23L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D.
On the other side, Boavista sit at 1.22 PPG from 50 outings (16W 13D 21L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Vizela against 1.22 for Boavista. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Vizela's home form reads 6W 7D 11L across their last 24 home games, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Boavista have taken 0.88 points per game from their last 24 away games (6W 3D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Vizela are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 1.30 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista in 66%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Blended
Boavista
Blended
Vizela (Home) vs Boavista (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vizela
Blended
Boavista
Blended
❓ Vizela vs Boavista Form FAQs
What form are Vizela and Boavista in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 13W 14D 23L in their last 50 games (1.06 PPG), while Boavista have gone 16W 13D 21L in their last 50 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Boavista away?
Vizela's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.04 PPG; Boavista away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Vizela or Boavista been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vizela have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Boavista in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Vizela and Boavista, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 18 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Boavista won Vizela 1-4 Boavista on 14 Jan 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vizela have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Boavista — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Vizela
5
Draws
1
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Vizela vs Boavista H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Boavista?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Vizela have won 0, Boavista have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Boavista last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 May 2024: Boavista 2-2 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Boavista?
Boavista have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 42%, Boavista 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vizela) and 62% (Boavista). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vizela keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Vizela have failed to score in 42% of games; Boavista in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vizela vs Boavista Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vizela and Boavista matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Vizela's recent matches and 62% of Boavista's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vizela and Boavista matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Vizela's matches and 62% of Boavista's.
Do Vizela and Boavista matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Vizela's recent matches and 67% of Boavista's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Boavista run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Vizela.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boavista beat Vizela 1-4 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 1.23 xG and Boavista 1.11 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Boavista outscored their 1.11 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.74 / defence 1.02 against Boavista attack 0.85 / defence 1.13, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 39% | Draw 28% | Boavista 33%, with Vizela to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Boavista win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 42%, Boavista 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Boavista's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vizela 1.06 PPG, Boavista 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Boavista win broke the near-deadlock. Vizela (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Boavista (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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