Finn Harps 1-2 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 43%, yet in-form Dundalk provide a compelling counter-argument — this Finn Harps vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Dundalk travel to Finn Park to take on Finn Harps in Premier Division (matchday 33). The game is scheduled for Friday 14 October 2022 at 21:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Finn Harps have gone 2W 1D 7L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Finn Harps's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Dundalk — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Dundalk have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Dundalk's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Finn Harps's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Dundalk have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Finn Harps.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Jul 2022, ended Finn Harps 0–3 Dundalk — a Dundalk win.
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Finn Harps in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Dundalk in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Finn Harps 56% versus Dundalk 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Finn Harps 62% | Dundalk 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Finn Harps surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Dundalk have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 37% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 1.29 xG and Dundalk 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.927 / defence 1.169 | Dundalk attack 0.813 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.063. Data: built from Finn Harps's last 68 games and Dundalk's last 68.
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 43% | Draw 28% | Dundalk 29%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Dundalk 3.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Finn Harps as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dundalk (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Finn Harps offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Finn Harps 40% (last 10 home games) | Dundalk 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 33 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Friday 14 October 2022 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 43% | Draw 28% | Dundalk 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Finn Harps 1.29 / Dundalk 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 0.927 / def 1.169 | Dundalk attack 0.813 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Finn Harps (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Dundalk xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Finn Harps vs Dundalk FAQs
What time does Finn Harps vs Dundalk kick off?
Finn Harps vs Dundalk kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Friday 14 October 2022 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs Dundalk?
Finn Harps 1 - 2 Dundalk.
Where is Finn Harps vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs Dundalk part of?
Finn Harps vs Dundalk is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 33) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 43% chance of winning, Dundalk a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Finn Harps the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Finn Harps and Dundalk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Finn Harps vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Finn Harps's attack at 0.93x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dundalk's attack versus Finn Harps's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Finn Harps's last 68 games and Dundalk's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Finn Harps Win
43%
2.33
28%
3.57
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
2.30
1.01
Dundalk xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
8%
12.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Finn Harps vs Dundalk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Finn Harps and 1.01 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, Finn Harps have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 15W 18D 35L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Dundalk's form line: 27W 20D 21L from 68 games, 1.49 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Dundalk are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Finn Harps.
Venue Form
On home soil, Finn Harps have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 34 home games (8W 10D 16L).
On the road, Dundalk have gone 7W 14D 13L from their last 34 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Finn Harps are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.26 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
Finn Harps (Home) vs Dundalk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Finn Harps
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Finn Harps vs Dundalk Form FAQs
What form are Finn Harps and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Finn Harps have gone 15W 18D 35L in their last 68 games (0.93 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 27W 20D 21L in their last 68 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Finn Harps at home or Dundalk away?
Dundalk's away record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Finn Harps at home: 1.00 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Finn Harps or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Finn Harps have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Dundalk in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from March 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 14 October 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Dundalk have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Feb 2022, when Dundalk won Dundalk 3-0 Finn Harps.
Finn Harps's record when hosting Dundalk specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Finn Harps
2
Draws
5
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Finn Harps vs Dundalk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Dundalk?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Finn Harps have won 1, Dundalk have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and Dundalk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 October 2022: Finn Harps 1-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Finn Harps 53%, Dundalk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Finn Harps) and 35% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Finn Harps have failed to score in 35% of games; Dundalk in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Finn Harps vs Dundalk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Finn Harps and Dundalk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Finn Harps's recent matches and 50% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Finn Harps and Dundalk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Finn Harps's recent games and 35% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Finn Harps and Dundalk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Finn Harps's recent matches and 68% of Dundalk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dundalk defy the odds to beat Finn Harps 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Finn Harps 1-2 at Finn Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 1.29 xG and Dundalk 1.01 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Dundalk outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 0.93 / defence 1.17 against Dundalk attack 0.81 / defence 1.05, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 43% | Draw 28% | Dundalk 29%, with Finn Harps to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Dundalk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Finn Harps 62%, Dundalk 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Finn Harps's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Dundalk's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.