St Patrick's Athl. 3-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. host Bohemians at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 14 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Premier Division matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 5W 1D 4L at Richmond Park — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Richmond Park this season.
Bohemians — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Bohemians's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On current form, St Patrick's Athl. have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Bohemians trading profile (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 52% versus Bohemians 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 52% | Bohemians 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.08 xG and Bohemians 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.956 / defence 0.966 | Bohemians attack 1.018 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.063. Data: 68 St Patrick's Athl. games / 68 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 36% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 34%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Bohemians 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Bohemians 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 14 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 36% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.08 / Bohemians 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.956 / def 0.966 | Bohemians attack 1.018 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Bohemians xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 14 October 2022 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
St Patrick's Athl. 3 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 36% chance of winning, Bohemians a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Bohemians (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (0.96) and Bohemians's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
36%
2.78
30%
3.36
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.13
1.05
Bohemians xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
12%
8.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.05 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
St Patrick's Athl. come into this having played 68 games, going 34W 15D 19L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Bohemians sit at 1.38 PPG from 68 outings (25W 19D 24L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.72 PPG, Bohemians on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
St Patrick's Athl.'s home form reads 20W 5D 9L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians have taken 1.21 points per game from 34 outings (10W 11D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.44 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians in 62%.
Last 68 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 34W 15D 19L in their last 68 games (1.72 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 25W 19D 24L in their last 68 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Bohemians away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.91 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.21 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Bohemians in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Bohemians specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St Patrick's Athl.
5
Draws
2
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, Bohemians have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Bohemians 2-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 44%, Bohemians 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 38% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 62% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 38% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St Patrick's Athl. cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bohemians.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Bohemians 3-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.08 xG and Bohemians 1.05 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.96 / defence 0.97 against Bohemians attack 1.02 / defence 0.87, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 36% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 34%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 52%, Bohemians 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.72 PPG, Bohemians 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Bohemians (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.