Shelbourne 1-1 UCD – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shelbourne face UCD.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shelbourne and UCD meet at Tolka Park in Premier Division (matchday 33). This fixture gets under way on Monday 24 October 2022 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Shelbourne (all games): 0W 6D 4L across their last 10 — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shelbourne's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Shelbourne are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
UCD have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
On the road, UCD have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.00 for UCD. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Shelbourne edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 22 Jul 2022, ended Shelbourne 2–0 UCD — a Shelbourne win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Shelbourne half-time and goal-timing data (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
UCD half-time and goal-timing data (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 48% versus UCD 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 39% | UCD 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.43 xG and UCD 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.859 / defence 1.213 | UCD attack 0.642 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.123. UCD's defence rating of 1.202 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shelbourne's projected output up. UCD's attack rating of 0.642 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Shelbourne's defence rating of 1.213 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing UCD's projected output up. Data: built from Shelbourne's last 33 games and UCD's last 33.
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 50% | Draw 27% | UCD 23%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 1.99 | Draw 3.72 | UCD 4.36. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shelbourne at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Shelbourne's last 10 home games and UCD's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shelbourne 40% (last 10 home games) | UCD 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 33 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Monday 24 October 2022 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 50% | Draw 27% | UCD 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Shelbourne 1.43 / UCD 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.859 / def 1.213 | UCD attack 0.642 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.87
UCD xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shelbourne vs UCD FAQs
What time does Shelbourne vs UCD kick off?
Shelbourne vs UCD kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Monday 24 October 2022 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs UCD?
Shelbourne 1 - 1 UCD.
Where is Shelbourne vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs UCD part of?
Shelbourne vs UCD is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 33) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 50% chance of winning, UCD a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Shelbourne and UCD will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Shelbourne vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shelbourne's attack at 0.86x the league average against UCD's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — UCD's attack (0.64x) against Shelbourne's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from Shelbourne's last 33 games and UCD's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
50%
1.99
27%
3.72
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.31
0.87
UCD xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
5%
18.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.5 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shelbourne vs UCD Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.87 for UCD, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs UCD?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shelbourne come into this having played 33 games, going 9W 10D 14L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, UCD sit at 0.67 PPG from 33 outings (5W 7D 21L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Shelbourne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of UCD — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shelbourne's home form reads 4W 5D 7L across their last 16 home games, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, UCD have taken 0.50 points per game from their last 16 away games (2W 2D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; UCD are on 0.73 scored and 1.91 conceded.
Last 33 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
UCD
Current Season
Shelbourne (Home) vs UCD (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shelbourne
Current Season
UCD
Current Season
❓ Shelbourne vs UCD Form FAQs
What form are Shelbourne and UCD in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 9W 10D 14L in their last 33 games (1.12 PPG), while UCD have gone 5W 7D 21L in their last 33 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or UCD away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.06 PPG; UCD away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 27 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shelbourne have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shelbourne won UCD 0-4 Shelbourne on 7 Jul 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against UCD — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Shelbourne
3
Draws
0
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Shelbourne vs UCD H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and UCD?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Shelbourne have won 5, UCD have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and UCD last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 October 2023: Shelbourne 3-2 UCD.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and UCD?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 44%, UCD 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Shelbourne) and 50% (UCD).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne have failed to score in 44% of games; UCD in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shelbourne vs UCD Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shelbourne and UCD matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 31% of UCD's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shelbourne and UCD matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Shelbourne's recent games and 50% of UCD's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and UCD matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 81% of UCD's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shelbourne and UCD share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne and UCD finished level at 1-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.43 xG and UCD 0.87 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.86 / defence 1.21 against UCD attack 0.64 / defence 1.20, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 50% | Draw 27% | UCD 23%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 39%, UCD 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
UCD's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. UCD (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.