Dundalk 1-2 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 50%, yet in-form St Patrick's Athl. provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to Casey's Field to take on Dundalk. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 October 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dundalk stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Casey's Field, Dundalk have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Casey's Field. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Dundalk are significantly better at Casey's Field than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. St Patrick's Athl. are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Dundalk in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 52% versus St Patrick's Athl. 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 45% | St Patrick's Athl. 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.59 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.140 / defence 0.683 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.510 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.025. St Patrick's Athl. have an above-average attack strength of 1.510 — the away xG of 1.06 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Dundalk's defence rating of 0.683 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 67 Dundalk games / 67 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 50% | Draw 25% | St Patrick's Athl. 25%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | St Patrick's Athl. 4.00. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dundalk at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form St Patrick's Athl. (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dundalk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dundalk 40% | St Patrick's Athl. 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Casey's Field • Kick-off: Friday 7 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 50% | Draw 25% | St Patrick's Athl. 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Dundalk 1.59 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.140 / def 0.683 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.510 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.06
St Patrick's Athl. xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 7 October 2022 at Casey's Field.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Dundalk 1 - 2 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Casey's Field.
What competition is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 50% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Dundalk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dundalk's attack at 1.14x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Dundalk's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
50%
2.01
25%
4.00
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.65
1.06
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
5%
19.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.9 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.06 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dundalk come into this having played 67 games, going 27W 20D 20L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, St Patrick's Athl. sit at 1.70 PPG from 67 outings (33W 15D 19L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dundalk on 1.51 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Dundalk's home form reads 20W 6D 7L across 33 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — Dundalk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, St Patrick's Athl. have taken 1.48 points per game from 33 outings (13W 10D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dundalk are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.54 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 27W 20D 20L in their last 67 games (1.51 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 33W 15D 19L in their last 67 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Dundalk's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 2.00 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Dundalk or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dundalk's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dundalk
3
Draws
5
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 54%, St Patrick's Athl. 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Dundalk) and 48% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play St Patrick's Athl.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Dundalk's games and 58% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Dundalk's recent games and 48% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as St Patrick's Athl. defy the odds to beat Dundalk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Dundalk 1-2 at Casey's Field, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.59 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.06 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.14 / defence 0.68 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.51 / defence 1.06, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 50% | Draw 25% | St Patrick's Athl. 25%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a St Patrick's Athl. win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 45%, St Patrick's Athl. 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.51 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. Dundalk (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.