Sharjah FC 2-1 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sharjah FC at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sharjah FC face Al-Wasl FC.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Al-Wasl FC make the trip to Sharjah Stadium to face Sharjah FC in Pro League (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 18:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Sharjah FC have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Sharjah FC have posted 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Wasl FC's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Sharjah FC against 1.20 for Al-Wasl FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Sharjah FC's last 10 home games and Al-Wasl FC's last 10 away games) — Sharjah FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Wasl FC in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Al-Wasl FC edge it 4 wins to 3, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Sep 2025, ended Sharjah FC 1–2 Al-Wasl FC — a Al-Wasl FC win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Sharjah FC — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Al-Wasl FC — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 48% versus Al-Wasl FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 56% | Al-Wasl FC 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.75 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.101 / defence 1.236 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.834 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.353. Sharjah FC's defence rating of 1.236 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Wasl FC's projected output up. Data: built from Sharjah FC's last 46 games and Al-Wasl FC's last 46.

Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 46% | Draw 23% | Al-Wasl FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.18 | Draw 4.30 | Al-Wasl FC 3.25. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.75 / 1.40) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sharjah FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sharjah FC's last 10 home games and Al-Wasl FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sharjah FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Wasl FC 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights