Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-0 Al-Dhafra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dibba Al-Fujairah at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Dhafra meet at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 14:50 UTC.
Form
Dibba Al-Fujairah (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah have posted 2W 2D 6L at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Dhafra's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Dhafra have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Dibba Al-Fujairah. A 0.50 PPG lead over Al-Dhafra (1.10 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Dibba Al-Fujairah have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al-Dhafra in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dibba Al-Fujairah lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Al-Dhafra winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dibba Al-Fujairah — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al-Dhafra — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dibba Al-Fujairah 60% and Al-Dhafra 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dibba Al-Fujairah 55% | Al-Dhafra 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.49 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.789 / defence 1.217 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.785 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.380. Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.49 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Dhafra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.330 — this is suppressing Dibba Al-Fujairah's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Dibba Al-Fujairah games / 20 Al-Dhafra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 41% | Draw 25% | Al-Dhafra 33%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al-Fujairah 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Dhafra 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Al-Dhafra lead the H2H ledger, but Dibba Al-Fujairah carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Dibba Al-Fujairah are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dibba Al-Fujairah if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Dibba Al-Fujairah 70% | Al-Dhafra 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 14:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 41% | Draw 25% | Al-Dhafra 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.49 / Al-Dhafra 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.789 / def 1.217 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.785 / def 1.330 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.380 • Poisson stance: Dibba Al-Fujairah (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Al-Dhafra xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra kick off?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra kicked off at 14:50 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra?
Dibba Al-Fujairah 1 - 0 Al-Dhafra.
Where is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra part of?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al-Fujairah a 41% chance of winning, Al-Dhafra a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dibba Al-Fujairah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Dhafra will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Dhafra?
Record (3 meetings): Dibba Al-Fujairah 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Dhafra 2W.
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Dhafra in?
Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Al-Dhafra (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack at 0.79x the league average against Al-Dhafra's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Dhafra's attack (0.79x) against Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dibba Al-Fujairah Win
41%
2.42
25%
3.97
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Total xG
2.81
1.32
Al-Dhafra xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
11%
9.05
8%
13.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Dhafra expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 1.32 for Al-Dhafra, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent record stands at 3W 5D 12L from 20 games, a 0.70 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Dhafra, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 12L across 20 games — 0.90 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.70 PPG for Dibba Al-Fujairah against 0.90 for Al-Dhafra. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dibba Al-Fujairah have managed 2W 2D 6L from 10 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Dhafra's away record stands at 1W 3D 6L across 10 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Dibba Al-Fujairah are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Dhafra are on 1.25 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dibba Al-Fujairah have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Al-Dhafra in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
Al-Dhafra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Dhafra in coming into this match?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 3W 5D 12L in their last 20 games (0.70 PPG), while Al-Dhafra have gone 5W 3D 12L in their last 20 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home or Al-Dhafra away?
Dibba Al-Fujairah's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home: 0.80 PPG; Al-Dhafra away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Dhafra — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dibba Al-Fujairah
1
Draws
2
Al-Dhafra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Dhafra?
From 4 meetings on record, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 1, Al-Dhafra have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Dhafra last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-0 Al-Dhafra.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Dhafra?
Al-Dhafra have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dibba Al-Fujairah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Dibba Al-Fujairah, 60% for Al-Dhafra — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Dibba Al-Fujairah) and 40% (Al-Dhafra).
On the defensive side: Al-Dhafra in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al-Fujairah home games / Al-Dhafra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al-Fujairah play Al-Dhafra?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's games and 60% of Al-Dhafra's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent games and 40% of Al-Dhafra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Dhafra tend to score early?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al-Dhafra in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dibba Al-Fujairah edge out Al-Dhafra 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dibba Al-Fujairah beat Al-Dhafra 1-0 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.49 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.32 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Dhafra landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.79 / defence 1.22 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.79 / defence 1.33, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 41% | Draw 25% | Al-Dhafra 33%, with Dibba Al-Fujairah to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 55%, Al-Dhafra 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.70 PPG, Al-Dhafra 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dibba Al-Fujairah win broke the near-deadlock. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.