Baniyas SC 1-1 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baniyas SC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Baniyas SC welcome Sharjah FC to Baniyas Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 10 April 2026 at 14:55 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Baniyas SC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baniyas SC's home record at Baniyas Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Baniyas Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sharjah FC stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Sharjah FC have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Baniyas SC) versus 1.30 (Sharjah FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Sharjah FC have the better historical record — 7 wins from 9 previous contests against 2 for Baniyas SC.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 4.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2025, ended 4–1 with Baniyas SC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sharjah FC have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 4.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Baniyas SC in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sharjah FC in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baniyas SC 47% versus Sharjah FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 55% | Sharjah FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.70 xG and Sharjah FC 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.933 / defence 1.037 | Sharjah FC attack 1.054 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.344. Sharjah FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Baniyas SC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Baniyas SC games / 47 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 43% | Draw 23% | Sharjah FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Sharjah FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baniyas SC at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baniyas SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Baniyas SC 40% | Sharjah FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Apr 2026, 14:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 43% | Draw 23% | Sharjah FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Baniyas SC 1.70 / Sharjah FC 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.933 / def 1.037 | Sharjah FC attack 1.054 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Sharjah FC xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 14:55 on Friday 10 April 2026 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Baniyas SC 1 - 1 Sharjah FC.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC part of?
Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 43% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC?
Record (9 meetings): Baniyas SC 2W | Draws 0 | Sharjah FC 7W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Baniyas SC's attack rating (0.93) and Sharjah FC's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
43%
2.31
23%
4.27
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
3.17
1.47
Sharjah FC xG
2.31
43%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
10%
10.07
6%
16.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.5 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.47 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baniyas SC come into this having played 47 games, going 13W 9D 25L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sharjah FC sit at 1.60 PPG from 47 outings (23W 6D 18L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Baniyas SC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Baniyas SC's home form reads 5W 7D 11L across 23 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Sharjah FC have taken 1.39 points per game from 23 outings (9W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.60 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 13W 9D 25L in their last 47 games (1.02 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 23W 6D 18L in their last 47 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Sharjah FC away?
Sharjah FC's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 0.96 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Baniyas SC or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baniyas SC have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Oct 2023, when Sharjah FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Baniyas SC
1
Draws
7
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 2, Sharjah FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Baniyas SC 1-1 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baniyas SC 52%, Sharjah FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Baniyas SC) and 56% (Sharjah FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Baniyas SC's recent matches and 56% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baniyas SC vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Baniyas SC's matches and 56% of Sharjah FC's.
Do Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Baniyas SC and Sharjah FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.70 xG and Sharjah FC 1.47 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.93 / defence 1.04 against Sharjah FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.27, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 43% | Draw 23% | Sharjah FC 33%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 55%, Sharjah FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.