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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Baniyas SC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Khorfakkan host Baniyas SC at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 April 2026 at 14:50 UTC.

Form Guide

Khorfakkan — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Khorfakkan's home record at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Pro League games this season, Baniyas SC have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Khorfakkan) versus 1.40 (Baniyas SC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Khorfakkan have won 4, Baniyas SC 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 3–0 with Khorfakkan winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Khorfakkan in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

Baniyas SC in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 63% versus Baniyas SC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 63% | Baniyas SC 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.18 xG and Baniyas SC 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.889 / defence 1.284 | Baniyas SC attack 0.905 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.380. Data: 46 Khorfakkan games / 46 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 28% | Draw 25% | Baniyas SC 47%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Baniyas SC 2.13. Baniyas SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Baniyas SC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baniyas SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Khorfakkan 70% | Baniyas SC 30%.

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