Sharjah FC 2-1 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sharjah FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Wasl FC make the trip to Sharjah Stadium to face Sharjah FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sharjah FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sharjah FC have posted 4W 0D 6L at Sharjah Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Wasl FC's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Sharjah FC against 1.20 for Al-Wasl FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sharjah FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Wasl FC in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Sharjah FC, 4 for Al-Wasl FC and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Al-Wasl FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sharjah FC — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Al-Wasl FC — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 48% versus Al-Wasl FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 56% | Al-Wasl FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.75 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.101 / defence 1.236 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.834 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.353. Data: 46 Sharjah FC games / 46 Al-Wasl FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 46% | Draw 23% | Al-Wasl FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Wasl FC 3.23. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sharjah FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 60% | Al-Wasl FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 46% | Draw 23% | Al-Wasl FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Sharjah FC 1.75 / Al-Wasl FC 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.101 / def 1.236 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.834 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Al-Wasl FC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Sharjah FC 2 - 1 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 46% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC?
Record (9 meetings): Sharjah FC 3W | Draws 2 | Al-Wasl FC 4W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sharjah FC's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Al-Wasl FC's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Al-Wasl FC's attack (0.83x) against Sharjah FC's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
46%
2.18
23%
4.30
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
3.14
1.40
Al-Wasl FC xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
11%
8.78
5%
18.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.5 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.40 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 22W 6D 18L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Wasl FC's form line: 22W 13D 11L from 46 games, 1.72 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Sharjah FC against 1.72 for Al-Wasl FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 1.68 PPG from 22 outings (12W 1D 9L).
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 7W 7D 8L from 22 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Wasl FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 1.63 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 22W 6D 18L in their last 46 games (1.57 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 22W 13D 11L in their last 46 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Sharjah FC's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.68 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sharjah FC won 4-1 on 25 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sharjah FC have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Wasl FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sharjah FC
2
Draws
4
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 4, Al-Wasl FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Sharjah FC 2-1 Al-Wasl FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 36%, Al-Wasl FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Sharjah FC) and 64% (Al-Wasl FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Sharjah FC have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al-Wasl FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 64% of Al-Wasl FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Sharjah FC's matches and 64% of Al-Wasl FC's.
Do Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al-Wasl FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sharjah FC edge out Al-Wasl FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Al-Wasl FC 2-1 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.75 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.40 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.24 against Al-Wasl FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.11, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 46% | Draw 23% | Al-Wasl FC 31%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 56%, Al-Wasl FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sharjah FC 1.57 PPG, Al-Wasl FC 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sharjah FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.