Ajman 2-2 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajman vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Ajman welcome Khorfakkan to Ajman Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 15:05 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman at Ajman Stadium this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ajman Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ajman at 1.40 PPG versus Khorfakkan's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Ajman have won 2, Khorfakkan 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Ajman winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ajman trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Khorfakkan trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ajman 61% and Khorfakkan 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 59% | Khorfakkan 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.53 xG and Khorfakkan 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.802 / defence 1.244 | Khorfakkan attack 0.733 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.758. Data: 44 Ajman games / 45 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 36% | Draw 26% | Khorfakkan 39%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Khorfakkan 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Khorfakkan as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ajman 50% | Khorfakkan 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 15:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 36% | Draw 26% | Khorfakkan 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Ajman 1.53 / Khorfakkan 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.802 / def 1.244 | Khorfakkan attack 0.733 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.599 / away 1.758 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Khorfakkan xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Ajman vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 15:05 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Ajman 2 - 2 Khorfakkan.
Where is Ajman vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Khorfakkan part of?
Ajman vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 36% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Ajman and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Khorfakkan?
Record (5 meetings): Ajman 2W | Draws 2 | Khorfakkan 1W.
What form are Ajman and Khorfakkan in?
Ajman (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ajman's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Khorfakkan's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Ajman's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
36%
2.80
26%
3.92
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Ajman xG
Total xG
3.13
1.60
Khorfakkan xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
7%
13.91
8%
11.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Ajman and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Ajman and 1.60 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ajman's recent record stands at 18W 10D 16L from 44 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 23L across 44 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ajman by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khorfakkan heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ajman have managed 8W 4D 9L from 21 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 2W 6D 13L across 21 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khorfakkan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajman come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ajman are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.23 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajman have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 18W 10D 16L in their last 44 games (1.45 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 12W 9D 23L in their last 44 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Khorfakkan away?
Ajman's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.33 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ajman and Khorfakkan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2025, when Ajman won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajman's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ajman
3
Draws
2
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajman have won 5, Khorfakkan have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Khorfakkan 2-5 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Khorfakkan?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajman 62%, Khorfakkan 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Ajman and 62% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Ajman's games and 62% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajman vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Ajman's matches and 62% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Ajman and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajman and Khorfakkan share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Ajman and Khorfakkan drew 2-2 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.53 xG and Khorfakkan 1.60 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.80 / defence 1.24 against Khorfakkan attack 0.73 / defence 1.19, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 36% | Draw 26% | Khorfakkan 39%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 59%, Khorfakkan 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajman arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.