Emirates Club 0-0 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Wahda FC (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Emirates Club face Al Wahda FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Al Wahda FC travel to Emirates Club Stadium to take on Emirates Club. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 April 2024, 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Emirates Club have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Emirates Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Emirates Club have posted 1W 1D 6L at Emirates Club Stadium — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.62 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Wahda FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Al Wahda FC's 1.70 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Emirates Club's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Emirates Club register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant matches, Al Wahda FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al Wahda FC, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Emirates Club.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 1–4 with Al Wahda FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Wahda FC have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 5.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Emirates Club trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al Wahda FC trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Emirates Club 61% and Al Wahda FC 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emirates Club 61% | Al Wahda FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emirates Club 1.02 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emirates Club attack 0.766 / defence 1.214 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.915 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.778. Emirates Club's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Emirates Club games / 46 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emirates Club 19% | Draw 22% | Al Wahda FC 59%. Fair-value odds: Emirates Club 5.26 | Draw 4.55 | Al Wahda FC 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Al Wahda FC (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Emirates Club 75% | Al Wahda FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emirates Club vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Emirates Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Apr 2024, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emirates Club 19% | Draw 22% | Al Wahda FC 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG Emirates Club 1.02 / Al Wahda FC 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Emirates Club attack 0.766 / def 1.214 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.915 / def 0.827 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.778 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Emirates Club xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Al Wahda FC xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emirates Club vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Emirates Club vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 17:45 on Friday 26 April 2024 at Emirates Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Emirates Club vs Al Wahda FC?
Emirates Club 0 - 0 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Emirates Club vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Emirates Club Stadium.
What competition is Emirates Club vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Emirates Club vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Emirates Club vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Emirates Club a 19% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 59% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emirates Club vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Emirates Club and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Emirates Club vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emirates Club and Al Wahda FC?
Record (3 meetings): Emirates Club 0W | Draws 0 | Al Wahda FC 3W.
What form are Emirates Club and Al Wahda FC in?
Emirates Club (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Emirates Club's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Al Wahda FC's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Emirates Club's defence, projects 1.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (10.0%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
19%
5.29
22%
4.57
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
10.0%
Away win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Emirates Club xG
Total xG
3.00
1.98
Al Wahda FC xG
5.29
19%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
14%
7.21
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
3%
38.13
21%
4.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emirates Club vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Emirates Club and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Emirates Club and 1.98 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Emirates Club vs Al Wahda FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Emirates Club come into this having played 18 games, going 2W 4D 12L for 0.56 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Emirates Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Wahda FC sit at 1.72 PPG from 18 outings (9W 4D 5L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.16 PPG clear of Emirates Club — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Emirates Club's home form reads 1W 1D 6L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Wahda FC have taken 1.62 points per game from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Emirates Club are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.89 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Emirates Club have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Al Wahda FC in 72%.
Last 18 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emirates Club
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emirates Club and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Emirates Club have gone 2W 4D 12L in their last 18 games (0.56 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 9W 4D 5L in their last 18 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emirates Club at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emirates Club at home: 0.50 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2021, when Al Wahda FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emirates Club's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Emirates Club
1
Draws
3
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emirates Club and Al Wahda FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Emirates Club have won 0, Al Wahda FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emirates Club and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2024, when Emirates Club 0-0 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Emirates Club and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emirates Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emirates Club 75%, Al Wahda FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Emirates Club and 50% for Al Wahda FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emirates Club home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emirates Club play Al Wahda FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Emirates Club's games and 50% of Al Wahda FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emirates Club vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Emirates Club's matches and 50% of Al Wahda FC's.
Do Emirates Club and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Emirates Club have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Emirates Club's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Emirates Club Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Emirates Club and Al Wahda FC drew 0-0 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emirates Club 1.02 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.98 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Emirates Club fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Al Wahda FC landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emirates Club attack 0.77 / defence 1.21 against Al Wahda FC attack 0.92 / defence 0.83, drawn from 18/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emirates Club 19% | Draw 22% | Al Wahda FC 59%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emirates Club 61%, Al Wahda FC 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emirates Club's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Emirates Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.62 average — tighter than their form line. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.