Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 4-3 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai take on Sharjah FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC meet at Rashid Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games (2.33 PPG). Last five: W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sharjah FC have collected 3.00 PPG across 3 Pro League outings this season: 3W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 0.67. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sharjah FC are 0.67 PPG clear of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in recent Pro League fixtures (3.00 vs 2.33). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Sharjah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 33% | Sharjah FC 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0% | Sharjah FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.97 xG and Sharjah FC 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.930 / defence 1.029 | Sharjah FC attack 0.841 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.026 / away 0.970. Data: 3 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 3 Sharjah FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 33% | Draw 41% | Sharjah FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3.03 | Draw 2.44 | Sharjah FC 3.85. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.81 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 33% | Sharjah FC 33% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 33% | Draw 41% | Sharjah FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 39% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.97 / Sharjah FC 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.930 / def 1.029 | Sharjah FC attack 0.841 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.026 / away 0.970 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Sharjah FC xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 4 - 3 Sharjah FC.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 33% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 26% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.33 | L5 W-W-D. Sharjah FC (all comps): 3W-0D-0L in 3 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack at 0.93x the league average against Sharjah FC's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sharjah FC's attack (0.84x) against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.01
41%
2.46
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
1.81
0.84
Sharjah FC xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.46
41%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
10%
10.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 13.7 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 0.84 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 3 outings, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have picked up 2.33 PPG on a 2W 1D 0L record — W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sharjah FC's form line: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sharjah FC are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Attack vs Defence
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.67 scored and 0.67 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games; Sharjah FC in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
Sharjah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 (3.00 PPG).
Have Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 1-4 on 5 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sharjah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
3
Draws
2
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 5, Sharjah FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Sharjah FC 1-4 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai) and 33% (Sharjah FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 33% for Sharjah FC.
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Sharjah FC in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent matches and 33% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent games and 33% of Sharjah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Sharjah FC 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Sharjah FC 4-3 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.97 xG and Sharjah FC 0.84 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sharjah FC outscored their 0.84 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Sharjah FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.02, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 33% | Draw 41% | Sharjah FC 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0%, Sharjah FC 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.33. Form was overturned, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sharjah FC scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.