Sharjah FC 3-2 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Sharjah FC take on Al-Wasl FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Wasl FC make the trip to Sharjah Stadium to face Sharjah FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Friday 10 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sharjah FC have collected 3.00 PPG across 2 Pro League outings this season: 2W 0D 0L. Last five: W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Wasl FC's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Wasl FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Sharjah FC. A 1.00 PPG lead over Al-Wasl FC (3.00 vs 2.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 0.84 xG and Al-Wasl FC 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 0.979 / defence 1.050 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.880 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 0.834 / away 0.784. Data: 2 Sharjah FC games / 2 Al-Wasl FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 33% | Draw 41% | Al-Wasl FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 3.03 | Draw 2.44 | Al-Wasl FC 3.85. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.57. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.57 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Al-Wasl FC's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 21% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 33% | Draw 41% | Al-Wasl FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 32% | xG Sharjah FC 0.84 / Al-Wasl FC 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 0.979 / def 1.050 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.880 / def 1.033 | league avg home 0.834 / away 0.784 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Al-Wasl FC xG
32%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 10 September 2021 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Sharjah FC 3 - 2 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 33% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 26% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-W. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sharjah FC's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Al-Wasl FC's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. Flip it around — Al-Wasl FC's attack (0.88x) against Sharjah FC's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.01
41%
2.47
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
1.57
0.72
Al-Wasl FC xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.47
41%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.15
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
11%
8.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.8 | 15.1 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 12.7 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.5%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 0.72 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 1.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 0L record — W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Wasl FC's form line: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sharjah FC are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Wasl FC.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sharjah FC have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Al-Wasl FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Early Season
Al-Wasl FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Sharjah FC or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sharjah FC won 4-1 on 25 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sharjah FC have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Wasl FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sharjah FC
2
Draws
4
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 4, Al-Wasl FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Sharjah FC 2-1 Al-Wasl FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al-Wasl FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 50% of Al-Wasl FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Sharjah FC's recent games and 0% of Al-Wasl FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Sharjah FC edge out Al-Wasl FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Al-Wasl FC 3-2 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 0.84 xG and Al-Wasl FC 0.72 xG, a combined 1.57. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sharjah FC beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Wasl FC outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Al-Wasl FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.03, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 33% | Draw 41% | Al-Wasl FC 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual Sharjah FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 0%, Al-Wasl FC 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Sharjah FC scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Wasl FC scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.