Sharjah FC 2-1 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sharjah FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Al-Jazira travel to Sharjah Stadium to take on Sharjah FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 September 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sharjah FC stand at 3W 0D 1L from 4 Pro League matches — 2.25 PPG. Last five: W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Jazira — All Games: 3W 1D 0L from 4 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 0.75. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Jazira have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.25 PPG (Sharjah FC) versus 2.50 (Al-Jazira). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Sharjah FC in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Al-Jazira in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 50% versus Al-Jazira 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 50% | Al-Jazira 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.28 xG and Al-Jazira 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.091 / defence 1.160 | Al-Jazira attack 0.730 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.155 / away 1.074. Data: 4 Sharjah FC games / 4 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 41% | Draw 36% | Al-Jazira 23%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.44 | Draw 2.78 | Al-Jazira 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sharjah FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sharjah FC 50% | Al-Jazira 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 41% | Draw 36% | Al-Jazira 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Sharjah FC 1.28 / Al-Jazira 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.091 / def 1.160 | Al-Jazira attack 0.730 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.155 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Al-Jazira xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Sharjah FC 2 - 1 Al-Jazira.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 41% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 23% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L. Al-Jazira (all comps): 3W-1D-0L in 4 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 0.75 | L5 W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sharjah FC's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Al-Jazira's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Jazira's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
41%
2.44
36%
2.75
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.19
0.91
Al-Jazira xG
2.44
41%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
6%
15.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.2 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 0.91 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sharjah FC's recent record stands at 3W 0D 1L from 4 games, a 2.25 PPG return, with W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Jazira, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 0L across 4 games — 2.50 PPG, with W-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Jazira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sharjah FC on 2.25 PPG, Al-Jazira on 2.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.75 scored and 0.75 conceded. Sharjah FC's scoring rate against Al-Jazira's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Al-Jazira in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Early Season
Al-Jazira
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 games (2.25 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 (2.50 PPG).
Have Sharjah FC or Al-Jazira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Al-Jazira in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Jazira have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2026, when Al-Jazira won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Al-Jazira specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sharjah FC
4
Draws
4
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 2, Al-Jazira have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Al-Jazira 5-0 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al-Jazira see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 50%, Al-Jazira 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sharjah FC) and 50% (Al-Jazira).
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Jazira in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al-Jazira?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 50% of Al-Jazira's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sharjah FC's recent games and 50% of Al-Jazira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sharjah FC edge out Al-Jazira 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Al-Jazira 2-1 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.28 xG and Al-Jazira 0.91 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.16 against Al-Jazira attack 0.73 / defence 1.01, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 41% | Draw 36% | Al-Jazira 23%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 50%, Al-Jazira 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sharjah FC 2.25 PPG, Al-Jazira 2.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sharjah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Jazira shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.