Al Nasr 3-0 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Khorfakkan travel to Al Maktoum Stadium to take on Al Nasr. The game is scheduled for Thursday 16 September 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Nasr stand at 1W 0D 2L from 3 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al Nasr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khorfakkan — All Games: 0W 2D 1L from 3 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.67 PPG. Last five: L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Nasr 1.00 PPG, Khorfakkan 0.67 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Al Nasr trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Khorfakkan trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Nasr 33% versus Khorfakkan 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Nasr 100% | Khorfakkan 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.53 xG and Khorfakkan 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 1.482 / defence 1.035 | Khorfakkan attack 0.861 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 0.898 / away 0.933. Al Nasr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.482 — their λ of 1.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 3 Al Nasr games / 3 Khorfakkan games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 51% | Draw 32% | Khorfakkan 17%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 1.96 | Draw 3.12 | Khorfakkan 5.88. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Nasr 33% | Khorfakkan 67%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 51% | Draw 32% | Khorfakkan 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Al Nasr 1.53 / Khorfakkan 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 1.482 / def 1.035 | Khorfakkan attack 0.861 / def 1.151 | league avg home 0.898 / away 0.933 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Khorfakkan xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 16 September 2021 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Al Nasr 3 - 0 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 51% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 17% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Nasr and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Khorfakkan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Nasr and Khorfakkan in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-L. Khorfakkan (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Nasr's attack rating (1.48) and Khorfakkan's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Al Nasr's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
51%
1.97
32%
3.13
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
2.36
0.83
Khorfakkan xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
4%
26.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Al Nasr and 0.83 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 3 outings, Al Nasr have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 2L record — L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Nasr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Khorfakkan's form line: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games, 0.67 PPG, last five L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Nasr on 1.00 PPG, Khorfakkan on 0.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Al Nasr are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Early Season
Khorfakkan
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 (0.67 PPG).
Have Al Nasr or Khorfakkan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Nasr have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Khorfakkan in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Nasr and Khorfakkan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2022, when Khorfakkan won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Nasr's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Nasr
4
Draws
2
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 4, Khorfakkan have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Al Nasr 2-2 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Khorfakkan?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 33%, Khorfakkan 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Al Nasr and 33% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Nasr keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Khorfakkan in 33%; Al Nasr have failed to score in 33% of games; Khorfakkan in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Khorfakkan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 67% of Khorfakkan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al Nasr's matches and 33% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al Nasr and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Nasr run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Khorfakkan 3-0 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.53 xG and Khorfakkan 0.83 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al Nasr beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Khorfakkan landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.48 / defence 1.03 against Khorfakkan attack 0.86 / defence 1.15, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 51% | Draw 32% | Khorfakkan 17%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 100%, Khorfakkan 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Nasr 1.00 PPG, Khorfakkan 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Nasr win broke the near-deadlock. Al Nasr scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.