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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dibba Al-Fujairah face Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Dibba Al-Fujairah welcome Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 16 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Dibba Al-Fujairah's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 5L across 9 games at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium this term (0.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form points away from home here. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's 2.60 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Dibba Al-Fujairah's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Dibba Al-Fujairah.

The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2026, ended 0–7 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 5.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Dibba Al-Fujairah trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 63% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dibba Al-Fujairah 63% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dibba Al-Fujairah 53% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.70 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.859 / defence 1.078 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.440 / defence 0.586. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.361. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence strength of 0.586 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have an above-average attack strength of 1.440 — the away xG of 2.11 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 19 Dibba Al-Fujairah games / 45 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 11% | Draw 19% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 70%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al-Fujairah 9.09 | Draw 5.26 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.43. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 5.3 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Dibba Al-Fujairah 78% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 20%.

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