Khorfakkan 2-1 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baniyas SC at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Khorfakkan face Baniyas SC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Khorfakkan host Baniyas SC at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium in Pro League (matchday 21). Kick-off is Sunday 5 April 2026 at 15:50 UK time.
Form Guide
Khorfakkan — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Khorfakkan's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Baniyas SC have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Khorfakkan) versus 1.40 (Baniyas SC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for Khorfakkan, 3 for Baniyas SC and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2025, ended Khorfakkan 3–0 Baniyas SC — a Khorfakkan win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Khorfakkan in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Baniyas SC in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 63% versus Baniyas SC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 63% | Baniyas SC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.18 xG and Baniyas SC 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.889 / defence 1.284 | Baniyas SC attack 0.905 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.380. Khorfakkan's defence rating of 1.284 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Baniyas SC's projected output up. Data: built from Khorfakkan's last 46 games and Baniyas SC's last 46.
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 28% | Draw 25% | Baniyas SC 47%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 3.58 | Draw 4.02 | Baniyas SC 2.12. Baniyas SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baniyas SC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baniyas SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Khorfakkan's last 10 home games and Baniyas SC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Khorfakkan 70% (last 10 home games) | Baniyas SC 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 21 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 15:50 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 28% | Draw 25% | Baniyas SC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Khorfakkan 1.18 / Baniyas SC 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.889 / def 1.284 | Baniyas SC attack 0.905 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.380 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Baniyas SC xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC FAQs
What time does Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 15:50 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC?
Khorfakkan 2 - 1 Baniyas SC.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC part of?
Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 21) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 28% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Khorfakkan's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Baniyas SC's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Baniyas SC's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Khorfakkan's last 46 games and Baniyas SC's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
28%
3.58
25%
4.02
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
2.78
1.60
Baniyas SC xG
3.58
28%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
20%
4.97
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
6%
17.80
15%
6.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.9 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.60 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Khorfakkan come into this having played 46 games, going 14W 11D 21L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Baniyas SC sit at 1.04 PPG from 46 outings (13W 9D 24L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khorfakkan on 1.15 PPG, Baniyas SC on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Khorfakkan's home form reads 5W 9D 9L across their last 23 home games, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Baniyas SC have taken 1.13 points per game from their last 23 away games (8W 2D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.09 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
Khorfakkan (Home) vs Baniyas SC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Khorfakkan
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
❓ Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC Form FAQs
What form are Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 14W 11D 21L in their last 46 games (1.15 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 13W 9D 24L in their last 46 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Baniyas SC away?
Baniyas SC's away record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.04 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 11 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Jan 2025, when Khorfakkan won Khorfakkan 5-2 Baniyas SC.
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Baniyas SC specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Khorfakkan
2
Draws
3
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Khorfakkan have won 5, Baniyas SC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 September 2026: Khorfakkan 0-0 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC?
Khorfakkan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 65%, Baniyas SC 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Khorfakkan) and 48% (Baniyas SC).
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan have failed to score in 26% of games; Baniyas SC in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Khorfakkan vs Baniyas SC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 39% of Baniyas SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Khorfakkan's recent games and 48% of Baniyas SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khorfakkan and Baniyas SC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 91% of Baniyas SC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Khorfakkan defy the odds to beat Baniyas SC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Baniyas SC 2-1 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.18 xG and Baniyas SC 1.60 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Khorfakkan beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.89 / defence 1.28 against Baniyas SC attack 0.91 / defence 0.93, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 28% | Draw 25% | Baniyas SC 47%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Khorfakkan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 63%, Baniyas SC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 1.15 PPG, Baniyas SC 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khorfakkan win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.